000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140315 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE OCT 13 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AT 0300 UTC TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 109.2W OR ABOUT 45 NM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NW OR 325 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 35 KT GUSTS TO 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1002 MB. THERE IS CURRENTLY NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. PATRICIA IS EXPECTED CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BECOMING A DEPRESSION BY WED MORNING AND A REMNANT LOW BY WED EVENING. PATRICIA IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST AND CONTINUE TO MOVE W AS A REMNANT LOW TO NEAR 23.0N 117.5W FRI EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 93W N OF 04N AND IS MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. A LOW PREVIOUSLY ALONG THE WAVE IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 07N87W WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1009 MB. THIS LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST AROUND 5 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 90W AND 93W. THIS CONVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ORGANIZED BY EITHER THE LOW OR THE WAVE. HOWEVER...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ORGANIZING WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE LOW TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST AND DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 3 TO 4 DAYS. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 09N81W TO 04N101W TO 10N113W TO 10N120W TO 15N135W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 101W AND 109W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 132W AND 134W. TWO TROUGHS INTERSECT THE ITCZ W OF 125W. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH FROM 20N136W TO 13N136W. ANOTHER TROUGH...FROM 16N125W TO 14N127W TO 10N128W HAS ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 09N TO 11N. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAKENING DEEP LAYERED TROUGH LIES FROM 30N100W TO 20N113W...ALONG THE N SIDE OF TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA. THIS TROUGH IS PULLING AWAY FROM PATRICIA AND WILL MOVE NE OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. STEERING FLOW FOR PATRICIA WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE RIDGE TO ITS NW THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. 1015 MB HIGH PRES CURRENTLY LIES NEAR 23N123W WILL MIGRATE N-NW OVER THE PERIOD AND STRENGTHEN AS THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC PRIMARILY N OF FORECAST WATERS PASSES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. ALLOWING DEEP LAYER RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS N WATERS. THE PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL BUILD BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND PATRICIA ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 KT. THE TROUGHING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA IS BRINGING NW SWELL INTO THE REGION...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO REACH 15 FT OVER N WATERS WED. AS THE RIDGING BUILDS W OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW TO INCREASE W OF 125W PRIMARILY FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE ENHANCED TROUGHING OVER W WATERS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN HAS BEGUN TO DIMINISH AND WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO SHOULD DROP BELOW 20 KT OVERNIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH...INCREASED SW FLOW S OF THE ITCZ IS POSSIBLY RELATED TO THE BROAD TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W AND THE 1009 MB LOW AT 07N87W. THE MODELS SHOW SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES W THROUGH THIS REGION OF ENHANCED S FLOW ON ITS SE SIDE AND NE FLOW IN ITS N SEMICIRCLE FROM PAPAGAYO. $$ LL/SCHAUER