000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131016 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON OCT 12 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0815 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 109.3W OR ABOUT 135 NM S-SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 5 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 50 KT GUSTS TO 60 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 997 MB. DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE CENTRAL CORE OF PATRICIA HAD DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT...BUT HAS SINCE FLARED UP AGAIN IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. SATELLITE IMAGES STILL SHOW A ROUND CLUSTER OF CONVECTION COVERING PATRICIA... WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...SEVERAL OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGESTED THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF THIS STORM WAS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF DEEP CONVECTION...SUGGESTING A MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION HAS OCCURRED SINCE THIS PAST EVENING. PATRICIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AS IT MAKES A TURN NORTHWEST...AND THEN WESTWARD. THIS WILL BRING THE STORM OVER COOLER WATERS AND IN A DRIER MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND LIKELY LEAD TO A QUICK DEMISE TO THIS SYSTEM. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 88W MOVING W AROUND 12 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE IN THIS AREA ABOUT 7 DEGREES WIDE...WHILE OF RECENT THE BEST MID LEVEL TURNING IN THIS AREA WAS OCCURRING AT ABOUT 06N ALONG 84/85W. A LATE EVENING QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED A LOW LEVEL CENTER INVOF 08N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE ACROSS THE N AND S PORTIONS OF THIS E TO W ALIGNED CYCLONIC GYRE. RECENT RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES W TO NW. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 103W WITH ESTIMATED MOTION OF W AT 13 KT. THIS POSITION PUTS THE WAVE WITHIN THE E PORTION OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...AND NW-N FLOW. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG AXIS FROM 08N75W TO 09N80W TO 09N86W TO 06N94W TO 07N100W...THEN RESUMES AT 12.5N105W TO 11N115W TO 13N134W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 80W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS W OF 125W...WHILE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND 125W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 13N130W...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO ACROSS TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA AND FURTHER NE TO WELL E OF THE AREA. A JET STREAM BRANCH RIDING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED THIN CIRRUS ACROSS EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TOWARDS FAR NW MEXICO. A RATHER SHARP DEEP LAYER TROUGH WAS LIFTING OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA...USHERING THE JET STREAM E OF 120W TO ACROSS NRN BAJA AND THE U.S. W COAST. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO RATHER STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WAS PRESENT OVER THE AREA FROM 18N-25N. WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 22N W OF 125W. THE PRES GRADIENT E OF THE RIDGE WAS TIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 20 KT FROM 24N-27N E OF 115W TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND WAS ALSO INDUCING W TO SW FLOW AROUND 20 KT ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS THE 80'S WAS ALSO AIDING IN PRODUCING NE TO E WINDS NEAR 20 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH...THAT MOVED INTO THE REGION YESTERDAY...EXTENDED FROM 30N126W TO 21.5N140W BECOMING DIFFUSE. SW WINDS OF 20 KT ARE N OF 28N NW THIS TROUGH WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL. SWELL BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL BUILD TO 15 FT JUST N OF 30N PER WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. BY 48 HOURS THE DIFFUSE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE OF THE AREA. HOWEVER SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 9-13 FT IN NW SWELL N OF 28N W OF 133W AS A SECOND SURGE OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS ORIGINATING FROM WELL N OF THE AREA SPREADS INTO THE FAR NRN SECTION OF THE AREA. $$ STRIPLING