000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130314 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON OCT 12 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 109.9W OR ABOUT 200 NM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NNW OR 345 DEG AT 7 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT GUSTS TO 60 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS PATRICIA WAS DEPICTED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY AS A LARGE AND ROUND MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION COVERING THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER CONSISTING OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT AND 90 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE OF THE CENTER WITHIN 90 NM...EXCEPT 150 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT. LATEST NHC FORECAST IS FOR PATRICIA TO INCREASE SOME IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN THEREAFTER. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 101.5W FROM 5N-14N WITH ESTIMATED MOTION OF W AT 13 KT. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG 87W N OF 3N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WERE SHOWING WHAT APPEARS TO CYCLONIC ROTATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE WAVE FROM 3N-8N WITH A WEAK 1009 MB LOW CENTER BEING ANALYZED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 7N. PAST RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 8N84W TO 7N91W 11N100W...THEN RESUMES AT 13N110W TO 12N117W TO 13N125W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 127W-133W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 133W-139W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 85W-89W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 12N126W...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO ACROSS TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA AND FURTHER NE TO WELL E OF THE AREA. A JET STREAM BRANCH RIDING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED THIN CIRRUS ACROSS EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TOWARDS FAR NW MEXICO. A RATHER SHARP DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA N OF THE JET STREAM AND E OF 128W TO ALONG NRN BAJA AND THE U.S. W COAST. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO RATHER STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WAS PRESENT OVER THE AREA FROM 18N-25N. WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 22N W OF 125W. THE PRES GRADIENT E OF THE RIDGE IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 20 KT FROM 22N-25N E OF 115W TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO N OF 25N E OF 116W ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF TH 20-33 KT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA. OVER THE SRN PORTION...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N136W TO 16N135W MOVING W 10 KT. TO THE N OF THE TROUGH...NE-E TRADES OF 20 KT WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT WERE NOTED FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 126W -135W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY ABOUT OR SOONER THAN 30 HOURS. NE TO 20 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WERE BEING ENHANCED BY THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE 1009 MB LOW AND WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. THESE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT...THAT MOVED INTO THE REGION YESTERDAY... EXTENDS FROM 30N128W TO 24N140W AND IS MOVING ESE 15 KT. SW WINDS OF 20 KT ARE N OF 28N WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. NW WINDS OF 20 KT WERE OCCURRING W OF THE FRONT N OF 28N WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 30N121W TO 21N140W IN 24 HOURS WITH SIMILAR WINDS E OF THE FRONT BUT IN A SHRINKING AREA. SWELL WILL BUILD TO 13 FT IN SW TO W 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 28N PER WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. BY 48 HOURS THE FRONT IS FORECAST MOVE NE OF THE AREA WHILE BECOMING DIFFUSE...HOWEVER SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 9-13 FT IN NW SWELL N OF 28N W OF 133W AS A SECOND SURGE OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS ORIGINATING FROM WELL N OF THE AREA SPREADS INTO THE FAR NRN SECTION OF THE AREA. $$ AGUIRRE