000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121524 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON OCT 12 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AT 1500Z...TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA WAS LOCATED AT 19.1N 109.6W OR ABOUT 240 NM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. PATRICIA IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 7 KT...AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY BEFORE TURNING WEST. THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS ESTIMATED TO BE WITHIN THE NORTH PART OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITH NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM OVER THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 200 NM OVER THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE. PATRICIA IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS THEN CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH 72 HOURS THEN WEAKEN THEREAFTER. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS STORM. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 98W/99W FROM 05N TO 15N IS MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAD BEEN COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE LOCATED NEAR 10.5N101W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW AND DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ORGANIZED BY THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. OTHER CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE G=HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA ALONG 82W/83W N OF 5N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THERE IS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 04.5N82W WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR THE WAVE AND ALSO SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM OF THE POINT 07.5N85W. NEITHER AREA OF CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE ORGANIZED BY THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 07N78W TO 08N97W THEN RESUMES FROM 13N112W TO 11N120W TO 13N135W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 03N E OF 86W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 98W AND 107W...AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS FROM 121W TO 132W. ...DISCUSSION... DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS NORTH OF A LINE FROM 30N100W TO 20N112W TO 17N140W. THE PORTION OF THIS AREA SOUTH OF 25N AND THE PART NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. NORTH OF 25N WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ARE MOIST WITH SOME MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS ALONG THE LINE 32N32N132W TO 30N132W TO 24N140W. THE LOWER LEVELS ARE OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS EAST OF THE FRONT AND THE LOWER LEVELS ARE CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS NO CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGH THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXCEPT FOR THE LOW MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA. THIS FLOW IS DIFFLUENT ALOFT EAST OF 115W AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ WITH AREAS OF MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED AREAS OF CONVECTION. TROUGH IS WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 16N135W TO 10N137W AND IS DRIFTING WEST. THERE IS NO CONVECTION NEAR THE TROUGH. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 117W AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE TROUGH AND LOW MENTIONED ABOVE A BROAD TROUGH COVERS THE AREA. E OF 110W...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER THROUGH COSTA RICA AND INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. FURTHER SOUTH...INCREASED SW FLOW S OF THE ITCZ POSSIBLY IN RELATION TO THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 80W...WILL HELP DEVELOP A BROAD LOW PRES AREA ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 90W BY EARLY WED. $$ CHRISTENSEN