000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120341 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON OCT 12 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA AT 12/0300 UTC...AND WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 108.5W OR ABOUT 400 NM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NNW OR 340 DEG AT 5 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT GUSTS TO 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THIS SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE ITS OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN APPEARANCE AS THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER NOTED EARLIER IS NOW UNDERNEATH DEEPENING CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION CONSISTS OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG TYPE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SW AND W QUADRANTS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE QUADRANT. BANDING FEATURES APPEAR TO BE FORMING OVER THE E AND SE QUADRANTS OF PATRICIA. PATRICIA IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING THEREAFTER. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W/97W N OF 3N TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS MOVING W AT 13 KT. CONVECTION EARLIER NOTED WITH THE WAVE HAS SINCE WEAKENED...AND DOES NOT SHOW SIGNS OF BEING ORGANIZED. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR ERN PART OF THE AREA ALONG 79W N OF 5N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. IT IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION AT THE PRESENT TIME. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W TO 8N90W 12N100W TO 12N110W 9N120W TO 13N131W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-90 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 80W...AND BETWEEN 117W-132W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W-108W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 17N129W...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING E FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO 17N122W...AND NE TO ACROSS TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA AND FURTHER NE TO WELL E OF THE AREA. A JET STREAM BRANCH RIDING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED THIN CIRRUS ACROSS EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TOWARDS FAR NW MEXICO. A SHARP AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ENTERED THE AREA N OF THE JET STREAM BETWEEN 125W-138W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO RATHER STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WAS PRESENT OVER THE AREA ALONG AND W OF THE FIRST TROUGH TO 128W. WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 22N W OF 125W. THE PRES GRADIENT E OF THE RIDGE IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 20 KT FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 110 AND 114W. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO MERGE INTO OUTER PERIPHERY WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. OVER THE SRN PORTION...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N135W TO 17N134W MOVING W 10 KT. TO THE N OF THE TROUGH...NE TO E TRADES OF 20- 25 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT WERE NOTED FROM 12N TO 196 W OF 128W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA...AND EXTENDS FROM 30N135W TO 27N140W. SW WINDS OF 20 KT ARE N OF 28N WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM 30N131W TO 24N140W IN 24 HOURS WITH SIMILAR WINDS E OF THE FRONT...AND W TO NW WINDS OF 20 KT BEHIND IT WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-10 FT IN NW SWELL. BY 48 HOURS THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM 30N127W TO 23N140W. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD INCREASE TO 30 KT N OF ABOUT 27N AS A SECOND SURGE OF NWLY WINDS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE FAR NRN SECTION OF THE AREA. SEAS BUILD TO 12 FT BEHIND THE FRONT. $$ AGUIRRE