000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072111 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED OCT 07 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 99W/100W N OF 7N TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO MOVING W 20-25 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS A BROAD AREA FROM 7N TO THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 94W-105W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 8N77W 10N93W 12N103W 11N115W 10N125W 6N140W. A 1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 11N113 BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE ITCZ TO 3N E OF 81W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 105W-117W AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 125W-140W. ...DISCUSSION... A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOSTLY N OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 15N120W TO 10N126W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE E PACIFIC FROM 10N-23N BETWEEN 92W-115W ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND WEAKEN AHEAD OF A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER S/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH 30N118W TO 18N124W AS A SECOND UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE REGION ANCHORED NEAR 17N140W. SHIP AND A 1400 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATE THAT THERE IS 15 TO 20 KT NW FLOW ALONG THE BAJA COAST...ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI. FURTHER SOUTH...THE 1010 MB LOW NOTED EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W TO SW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW IS NOT PRODUCING ANY DEEP CONVECTION...IT MAY ENHANCE TRADE WIND FLOW AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. $$ WALLACE