000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050324
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON OCT 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NONE. 

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N80W TO 07N90W TO 10N105W 
09N120W TO 13N134W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 79W AND 84W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING 
THROUGH 32N135W THROUGH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 
25N136W TO NEAR 18N138W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS TO MOVE E AND BECOME ORIENTED ALONG A NE TO SW AXIS. A JET 
EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AT 16N135W TO 25N126W 
AND INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS ARE 
HIGHEST BETWEEN 125W AND 135W AND MEASURE UP TO 80 KT. WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE N AND NW OF THE JET AXIS. 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA CONTINUING SOUTHWARD TO 07N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W. AT 
THE SURFACE IN THE AREA BOUNDED BY 30N116W TO 20N123W TO 14N140W 
TO 24N140W TO 30N127W TO 30N116W WINDS ARE N TO NE 20 TO 25 KT 
AND SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN N TO NE SWELL. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS 
LOCATED NEAR 14N137W AND IS MOVING W 10 KT. WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 
CENTER WINDS ARE 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN A 90 NM 
RADIUS OF 14N135W. 

E OF 110W...
A STRONG STATIONARY MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
IS CENTERED IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO JUST OFF THE MEXICAN COAST 
NEAR 22N97W. EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER MOST OF THE AREA BETWEEN 
85W AND 110W. 

$$
CAB