000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042133
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN OCT 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
NONE. 

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N78W TO 07N90W TO 09N110W 
08N120W TO 13N134W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG N OF 05N E OF 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS ALSO WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF 14N135W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT SWIRL OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLAF IS OVER THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA AS A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 26.5N110W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 TO 25 KT. ALL CONVECTION HAS 
DISSIPATED. THE REMNANTS OF OLAF ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE E AT 10 KT 
AND DISSIPATE IN 18 HOURS.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 
42N147W THROUGH 30N140W TO 20N120W. ELSEWHERE...A 1010MB LOW IS 
LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF 14N136W...ALONG THE ITCZ. WINDS 20 TO 
25 KT ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. SEAS ARE SEAS 8 TO 10 
FT IN MIXED NE AND SW SWELL. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT W 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND MAINTAIN ACTIVE CONVECTION AND 
FRESH WINDS.

PULSES OF SWLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE FROM THE SRN 
HEMISPHERE INTO THE LOCAL WATERS AND BE THE DOMINANT WAVE ENERGY 
E OF 125W THROUGHOUT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER THESE PULSES 
WILL BE OF MODEST HEIGHTS...AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT ACROSS 
MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS 
NEAR 27N138W OVER THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA DRIFTING E 
AND IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING CUT OFF. A FAIRLY LARGE CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS FURTHER NE CENTERED OVER S OREGON NEAR 42N120W. 
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE CIRCULATION IS OVER N BAJA WITH 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A JET CORE OF 65-85 KT. AN 
EXPANSIVE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N98W WITH AN ASSOCIATED 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 10N130W. A BROAD AREA OF STRONG 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE N SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE 
EXTENDED NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE JET AXIS NOTED 
ABOVE. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS DOMINATED THE TROPICAL EAST 
PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE ANTICYCLONE ABOVE GENERALLY IN THE AREA E 
OF 105W...AND IS PRODUCING POCKETS OF UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS 
THE ITCZ THERE. 

$$
FORMOSA