000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041538
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN OCT 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
NONE. 

...ITCZ...

AXIS WAS CENTERED ALONG 07N78W TO 10N100W TO 08N115W TO 13N132W 
TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS E OF 87W. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR 11N89W AND ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS 
BETWEEN FROM 100W TO 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS ALSO NOTED FROM 
06N TO 10N W OF 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLAF IS INLAND OVER THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA AS A 1005 MB LOW NEAR 25N111W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 TO 25 KT. WESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT 
HAS SHEARED THE MID LEVEL CENTER AND ALL DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO 
THE EAST OF THIS LOW LEVEL CENTER...AND ALONG THE COAST OF 
MAINLAND MEXICO MORE THAN 200 NM AWAY FROM THE REMNANT LOW LEVEL 
SWIRL OF OLAF. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23-25N 
BETWEEN 107W-108W. THE REMNANTS OF OLAF ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE E 
AT 10 KT AND DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 
41N148W THROUGH 30N140W TO 23N125W. ELSEWHERE...A 1010MB LOW IS 
LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF 14N135W...ALONG THE ITCZ. WINDS 20 TO 
25 KT ARE WITHIN 210 NM NW SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM 
SE QUADRANT. SEAS ARE SEAS 10 TO 11 FT IN MIXED NE AND SW SWELL. 
THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND 
MAINTAIN ACTIVE CONVECTION AND FRESH WINDS...THEN GRADUALLY 
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

PULSES OF SWLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE FROM THE SRN 
HEMISPHERE INTO THE LOCAL WATERS AND BE THE DOMINANT WAVE ENERGY 
E OF 125W THROUGHOUT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER THESE PULSES 
WILL BE OF MODEST HEIGHTS...AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT ACROSS 
MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS 
NEAR 27N138W OVER THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA DRIFTING E 
AND IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING CUT OFF. A FAIRLY LARGE CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS FURTHER NE CENTERED OVER S OREGON NEAR 42N120W. 
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE CIRCULATION IS OVER N BAJA WITH 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A JET CORE OF 65-85 KT. AN 
EXPANSIVE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N98W WITH AN ASSOCIATED 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 10N130W. A BROAD AREA OF STRONG 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE N SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE 
EXTENDED NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE JET AXIS NOTED 
ABOVE....AND HAS COMPLETELY SHEARED AWAY THE MID LEVEL 
CIRCULATION AND DEEP CONVECTION FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLAF. 
UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS DOMINATED THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC 
SOUTH OF THE ANTICYCLONE ABOVE GENERALLY IN THE AREA E OF 
105W...AND IS PRODUCING POCKETS OF UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE 
ITCZ THERE. 

$$
FORMOSA