000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041002 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN OCT 04 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLAF HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW...WITH A 0715 UTC TRMM PASS SUGGESTING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 112.0W OR ABOUT 27 NM...OR 50 KM SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF ISLA SANTA MARGARITA MEXICO...MOVING E OR 085 DEGREES AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1005 MB. WESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT HAS SHEARED THE MID LEVEL CENTER AND ALL DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE EAST OF THIS LOW LEVEL CENTER...AND ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO MORE THAN 180 NM AWAY FROM THE REMNANT LOW LEVEL SWIRL OF OLAF. THE REMNANTS OF OLAF ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS IT MOVES INLAND ACROSS MEXICO. SEE THE LAST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ... AXIS WAS CENTERED ALONG 09N83W TO 11N96W TO 08N111W TO 08N121W TO 13.5N132W TO 11N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM N AND 210 NM S OF AXIS E OF 90W...AND WITHIN 210 NM N AND 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 118W. ...DISCUSSION... A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 26N139W OVER THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WAS DRIFTING S AND IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING CUT OFF FROM A CONNECTING TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ENE INTO SRN CALIFORNIA. A FAIRLY LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITHIN THE TROUGH NEAR 43N118W. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED WITHIN THE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...AND ALSO EXTENDED S FROM THE CUTOFF LOW TO 14N. THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AT 20N132W TO 27N127W AND INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO AN AREA OF GENERALLY CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SW CONUS. SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATED CORE SPEEDS OF 65-85 KT ALONG 130W...INCREASING TO 85-110 KT E OF 120W. AN EXPANSIVE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N100W WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 13N124W. A BROAD AREA OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE N SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE JET AXIS NOTED ABOVE....AND HAS COMPLETELY SHEARED AWAY THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND DEEP CONVECTION FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLAF...WHICH IS NOW A LOW LEVEL SWIRL AND REMNANT LOW. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS DOMINATED THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE ANTICYCLONE ABOVE GENERALLY IN THE AREA E OF 105W...AND WAS PRODUCING POCKETS OF UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE ITCZ THERE. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 39N148W THROUGH 32N137W TO 22N125W. NW OF LINE FROM 30N118W TO 22N130W TO 13N140W WINDS ARE FROM THE N TO NE AT 20 TO LOCALLY 25 KT WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN N TO NE SWELL. A 1010MB LOW WAS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF 13N135W...ALONG THE ITCZ...WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 11N138W. AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS SHOWED E TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 240 NM OF THE NW SEMICIRCLE AND A SMALL AREA OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS. THIS WAS ENHANCING LOCAL SEAS TO NEAR 11 FT. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAINTAIN ACTIVE CONVECTION AND FRESH WINDS...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PULSES OF SWLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE FROM THE SRN HEMISPHERE INTO THE LOCAL WATERS AND BE THE DOMINANT WAVE ENERGY E OF 125W THROUGHOUT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER THESE PULSES WILL BE OF MODEST HEIGHTS...AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. $$