000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032132
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT OCT 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLAF IS CENTERED NEAR 23.8N 113.3W AT 
03/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 200 NM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA MOVING E OR 095 DEGREES AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
WESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OLAF WITH THE DEEP 
CONVECTION LOCATED ABOUT 290 NM ENE OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OVER 
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. OLAF IS EXPECTED TO BE A 
REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS AND DISSIPATED BY 36 HOURS. HIGHEST SEAS 
ARE TO 13 FT.

...ITCZ...

AXIS WAS CENTERED ALONG 08N78W TO 10N95W TO 08N110W TO 13N128W 
TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 
60-90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 92W...AND 
BETWEEN 104 AND 108W. 

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 105W...
A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE NW 
PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 
32N130W TO BEYOND 24N140W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS DEVELOPING 
IN THE VICINITY OF 25N141W. A JET AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE 
BASE OF THE TROUGH AT 19N140W TO 26N130W AND INTO NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATE THE STRONGEST 
SPEEDS BETWEEN 120W AND 135W AND MEASURE 65 TO 75 KT. WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE NW OF THE JET. 
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT EXTEND UP TO 12 DEGREES S AND SE OF 
THE JET. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1033 MB HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 39N146W THROUGH 32N137W TO 22N125W. NW OF LINE 
FROM 30N120W TO 20N123W TO 13N140W WINDS ARE N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 
25 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN N TO NE SWELL. MODERATE EASTERLY 
WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED OVER THE TROPICS BETWEEN 105W AND 120W 
BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 15N132W TO 10N134W.  

E OF 105W...
A STRONG MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED 
OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 21N96W WITH NORTHEASTERLY TO 
EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 90W AND 
105W. THE CIRCULATION WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

$$
CAB