000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT OCT 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLAF IS CENTERED NEAR 24.2N 115.2W AT 
03/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 310 NM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA MOVING ENE OR 075 DEGREES AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
WESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT HAS WEAKENED OLAF WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION 
LOCATED ABOUT 250 NM ENE OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OVER SOUTHERN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA. OLAF IS EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY 24 
HOURS AND DISSIPATED BY 36 HOURS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT ARE ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE DEPRESSION.

...ITCZ...

AXIS WAS CENTERED ALONG 07N78W TO 08N98W TO 09N115W TO 13N131W 
WHERE IT BECOMES DISCONTINUED. THE ITCZ RESUMES AT 09N135W TO 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 04N TO 
08N BETWEEN 79W AND 87W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 06N 
TO 12N W OF 132W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS LOCATED NEAR 10N105W. 

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 105W...
A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE NW 
PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 
32N130W TO BEYOND 24N140W. A JET AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE BASE 
OF THE TROUGH AT 20N140W TO 26N130W AND INTO NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATE THE STRONGEST 
WIND BETWEEN 125W AND 135W AND MEASURE 65 TO 75 KT. WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE NW OF THE JET. SOUTHWESTERLY 
WINDS ALOFT EXTEND UP TO 12 DEGREES S AND SE OF THE JET. AT THE 
SURFACE A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 
39N147W THROUGH 32N138W TO 22N128W. NW OF LINE FROM 30N120W TO 
20N123W TO 13N140W N TO NE WINDS ARE IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE 
WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN N TO NE SWELL. MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS 
ALOFT ARE LOCATED OVER THE TROPICS BETWEEN 105W AND 120W 
BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 15N132W TO 10N134W. A LOW IS FORECAST TO 
DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

E OF 105W...
A STRONG MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED 
OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N96W WITH NORTHEASTERLY TO 
EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 90W AND 
105W. THE CIRCULATION WILL MOVE SLOWLY E OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FAIRLY LOW...1008 MB TO 1010 MB...OVER THE 
AREA N OF 05N E OF 105W AT 12 UTC.

$$
CAB