000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030306 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT OCT 03 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM OLAF WAS CENTERED NEAR 24.5N 116.5W AT 03/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 465 NM...745 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NE OR 040 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON OLAF WITH DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO SPREAD ENE AWAY FROM THE CENTER. EARLIER DURING THE DAY WAS CONFINED TO THE N SEMICIRCLE ...BUT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAS SHIFTED OVER TO THE NE QUADRANT WHERE A RATHER PRONOUNCED BAND CONSISTS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 24N114W TO 26N115W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE QUADRANT. NO DEEP CONVECTION WAS NOTED IN THE S SEMICIRCLE...HOWEVER PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW CLOUDS LINES CIRCULATING INTO OLAF CONTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. THE OVERALL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH OLAF BECOME SOMEWHAT STRETCHED NE TO SW UNDER THE SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER AND THIS COMBINED WITH A TRACK TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER COOLER WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN THE DISSIPATION OF THE REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC. ...ITCZ... AXIS WAS CENTERED ALONG 9N84W TO 9N95W TO 8N110W 12N118W WHERE IT BECOMES DISCONTINUED. THE ITCZ AXIS THEN RESUMES AT 15N120W TO 12N131W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W-118W...BETWEEN 137W-139W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 130W-136W. ...DISCUSSION... AMPLIFIED POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE S OF 32N WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 32N133W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 26N144W TO A BASE NEAR 13N147W. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED A 80-90 KT JET SE OF THE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED THROUGH 19N140W TO 28N130W THEN CURVED EWD ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SW CONUS. THIS JET WAS ADVECTING MAINLY UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW MOISTURE FROM OLAF NORTHEAST OVER MEXICO AND AND THE SW CONUS. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WAS NOTED NEAR THE CIRCULATION OFF CALIFORNIA...AND SWEEPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH GENERALLY S OF 18N W OF 120W. DOWNSTREAM...AN UPPER LEVEL BROAD BLOCKING ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 23N110W...WITH RIDGE N TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. OLAF IS SITUATED IN THE FAR WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE AND IS NOW UNDERGOING DIFFLUENT BUT SHEARING SOUTHERLY FLOW. AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE DEEP TROPICS WITH AXIS FROM THE EQUATOR AT 98W TO 10N90W WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS WITH THE TROUGH S OF 7N E OF 100W. ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS ALONG 119W S OF 12N MOVING W 15 KT. IT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 116W-118W. AT THE SURFACE... STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES EXTENDED SE FROM A 1035 MB HIGH NEAR 39N145W AND COVERED THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 18N W OF 120W. THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH THE LOWER PRESSURES IN THE TROPICS AND IN THE VICINITY OF TROPICAL STORM OLAF CONTINUES TO RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF NE TRADES OF 20-25 KT NW OF A LINE FROM 30N122W TO 21N128W TO 14N140W WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN N TO NE SWELL. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS S TO ALONG THE FAR NRN PORTION BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO LESSEN THE SUPPORTING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SWELLS THROUGHOUT THIS AREA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER MUCH OF THE WRN PORTION BUT REMAIN UP TO 11 FT OVER THE ERN PORTION WITH PERIODS OF ABOUT 9-10 SEC. OVER THE SRN PORTION OF THE AREA SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN SLY SWELL DUE TO LONG PERIOD SRN HEMISPHERIC SWELLS FROM OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AS ASSOCIATED STRONG SRN HEMISPHERIC FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESS SWD. $$ AGUIRRE