000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290918
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE SEP 29 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 5N ALONG 89W N OF 06N MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 9N84W 13N105W 14N117W 12N125W 14N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF OF AXIS FROM 
95W-97W AND WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS FROM 105W-110W AND WITHIN 50 
NM S AND 90 NM N OF AXIS FROM 122W-124W. 

...DISCUSSION...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 32N132W TO 25N140W.
A 75-80 KT SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM IS SE OF THE JET AXIS FROM 
24N130W NE TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS E OF THE TROUGH...OTHERWISE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. 

AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED SE OF THE CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION AND EXTENDS FROM A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER WRN 
MEXICO NEAR 21N104W EWD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SW THROUGH 
12N129W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SE OF THE ANTICYLONE FROM 8N-20N BETWEEN 105W-116W.

AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS S OF THE ANTICYLONE FROM NEAR 
THE COAST OF MEXICO AT 16N99W TO THE EQUATOR AT 95W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N107W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 105W-112W.
THE LOW COULD POSSIBLY FORM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. A COUPLE OF OTHER LOWS ARE ANALYZED OVER THE ITCZ.
ONE NEAR 13N129W...1011 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 11N-12N BETWEEN 126W-113W. THE SECOND LOW...1013 MB IS NEAR 
13N140W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE LOW CENTER. A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N116W TO 12N122W. A FEW SHOWERS 
ARE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS.

$$
DGS