000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260308 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT SEP 26 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG 8N78W TO 10N90W TO 11N100W TO 11N113W TO 15N123W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 135W ...AND 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 94W-101W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 129W-134W. ...DISCUSSION... AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW INTO THE AREA ACROSS NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 28N131W. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA SW AND W OF THIS LOW WITH A MEAN CENTER NEAR 13N132W. A JET STREAM BRANCH SERVES AS THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN BOTH OF THESE FEATURES. IT ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH 21N140W...AND EXTENDS TO 21N127W THEN NE TO ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND CONTINUES NEWD TO ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS WITH THE JET ARE ABOUT 50 KT. THIS JET IS TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ENE TOWARDS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. A WELL PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED WELL E OF THE REGION EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO A POINT NEAR 19N119W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT UNDERNEATH AND ALONG THE S SIDE OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO VENTILATE AND SUSTAIN CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 120W TO NEAR 93W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH STABLE CONDITIONS IS NOTED TO THE N OF THE JET STREAM WITH MOSTLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SSW NW OF LINE FROM 32N120W TO 21N130W TO 21N140W. OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 96W N OF THE ITCZ TO ACROSS MEXICO AND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING N TO S IS N OF THE AREA OVER THE FAR WRN GULF OF MEXICO. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER EASTERN MEXICO DUE TO RESULTING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND HIGH PRES OVER NRN MEXICO IS ALLOWING FOR N-NE 20 KT OVER THE AREA BOUNDED TO N OF 12N BETWEEN 93W-100W INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE E-SE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WHILE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD AS BROAD SURFACE LOW PRES BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 12N BETWEEN 91W-113W SLOWLY TRANSLATES WESTWARD. THE LOW PRES AREA BECOMES SOMEWHAT ELONGATED BETWEEN 105W-113W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 14N94W TO 14N97W. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT SURFACE LOW PRES MAY BE FORMING WITHIN THIS GYRE OF BROAD LOW PRES NEAR 11N112W...WHILE A TROUGH OR WEAK LOW ALSO FORMS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THESE AREAS INTO POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONES IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS SE INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N136W TO 26N122W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 21N AND W OF ABOUT 125W. THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA IS NEAR 17N124W 1007 MB MOVING WSW 6 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE SHOWN SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ERUPTING WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SW QUADRANT...AND 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE NEAR 130W SHORTLY AFTER 48 HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING W 10 KT IS ALONG 112W FROM 10N TO 14N. THIS TROUGH MAY BE THE INCIPIENT STAGE OF THE FORECAST LOW NEAR 11N112W POSSIBLY WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A STRONG COLD FRONT BYPASSING THE REGION TO THE N DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A LARGE NW SWELL TRAIN CONSISTING OF 8-10 FT SEAS PER LATEST WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE. EXPECT THESE SEAS TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE FAR NRN PORTION OF THE AREA ON SUN WITH THE HIGHEST OF THE SEA STAYING JUST N OF THE AREA. $$ AGUIRRE