000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220328
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE SEP 22 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 1010 MB IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 NM S-SW OF 
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. EARLIER VISIBLE AND 
SHORTWAVE IR SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE 
LOW AND MID-LEVELS. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE CURVED TO THE NORTH OF THE 
LOW FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 110W AND 116W. THERE IS A MEDIUM 
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...THE ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG 09N83W TO 10N95W TO 
15N107W TO 11N120W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 87W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 128W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 20N...
TWO WEAK SURFACE LOWS REMAIN OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE 
WESTERN LOW IS A 1014 MB REMNANT LOW OF MARTY CENTERED NEAR 
23N128W MOVING W 10 KT. THE OTHER LOW IS A SMALLER CIRCULATION 
LOCATED ABOUT 260 NM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
NEAR 22N115W MOVING NW 5 KT. NEITHER LOW HAS ASSOCIATED DEEP 
CONVECTION. A 1850 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE REMNANT LOW 
OF MARTY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPIN DOWN SHOWING 15-20 KT WINDS 
WITHIN 150-180 NM IN THE N QUADRANT. THE REMNANTS OF MARTY 
SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROUGH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WITH 
WINDS DIMINISHING AND SEAS SUBSIDING. A SHARPENING DEEP LAYER 
TROUGH WELL TO THE NW OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SLOWLY 
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE 
COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FORECAST WATERS. ONE 
OTHER NOTE...WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA MAY BRIEFLY REACH 
20 KT OUT OF THE N IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT TUE NIGHT. 

S OF 20N...
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS PROVIDING LIFT TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
POOLED ALONG THE ITCZ OVER THE FAR EASTERN WATERS. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUE S OF THE ITCZ 
WITHIN 240 NM OF THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SOUTHERLY 
SWELL...WITH PERIODS DECREASING TO THE 14-16 SECOND RANGE...IS 
AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO COASTS E OF 
105W. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. ELSEWHERE ASIDE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 
SYSTEMS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS FOUND ALONG 129W FROM 10N TO 
16N CAUSING A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE ITCZ AND SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 

$$
CANGIALOSI