000 AXPZ20 KNHC 211603 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON SEP 21 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE/SURFACE TROUGH... THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WAS ALONG 105W EARLIER HAS BEEN DROPPED. A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WAS LOCATED ALONG 110W AT 0600 UTC HAS SHOWN MORE IN THE WAY OF CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS NOW CARRIED AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE AND LIES ALONG 112W FROM 08N TO 18N MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. THIS TROUGH IS SITUATED WITHIN AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO THE SW OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO. WITHIN THE TROUGH ITSELF THERE WAS A BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL TURNING WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 14N TO 16N. ...THE ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG A LINE FROM 08N83W TO 07N95W TO 13N109W TO 11N122W TO 13N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WITHIN 180-240 NM S OF AXIS E OF 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 125W AND 137W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 20N... TWO WEAK SURFACE LOWS ARE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE WESTERN LOW IS THE 1011 MB REMNANT LOW OF MARTY CENTERED NEAR 23N126W MOVING W 10 KT. THE OTHER LOW IS A SMALLER CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT 225 NM WSW OF THE SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 22N114W MOVING NW AT 5 KT. NEITHER LOW HAS ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. A 1418 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE REMNANT LOW OF MARTY WAS SLOWLY SPINNING DOWN WITH THE QUIKSCAT PASS NOW SHOWING 20 KT WINDS WITHIN 150-180 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT. THE REMNANTS OF MARTY SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROUGH WITHIN 24 HOURS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND SEAS SUBSIDING AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY MORE HOSTILE CONDITIONS. A SHARPENING DEEP LAYER TROUGH WELL TO THE NW OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS WELL NW OF THE AREA AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FORECAST WATERS AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY WED. ONE OTHER NOTE...WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA MAY BRIEFLY REACH 20 KT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT. THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AND THE NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A WEAKER WIND EVENT THE PAST FEW RUNS. S OF 20N... DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 07N76W AND A LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR THE EQUATOR AT 100W IS PROVIDING LIFT TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE ITCZ OVER FAR EASTERN WATERS. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY NOTED N OF THE ITCZ INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN ALSO BE FOUND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST FROM 03N TO 06N. WEAKENING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 94W AND 101W INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS CONVECTION IS ATTRIBUTED O DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS STEMMING FROM THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE EQUATOR REACHING NE THROUGH EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N100W. SLY SWELL...WITH PERIODS IN THE 16-18 SECOND RANGE...CAN BE FOUND ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO COASTS E OF 100W. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ELSEWHERE ASIDE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SYSTEMS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS FOUND ALONG 128W CAUSING A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE ITCZ BUT LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. $$ COBB