000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210853 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON SEP 21 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE LIES ALONG 105W FROM 08N TO 18N MOVING W 12 KT. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS UNDER A BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL TURNING THAT IS ALSO SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 110W FROM 09N TO 16N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 09N TO 16N. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND ON THE NW SIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 105W AND 108W. THIS CONVECTION LIES IN A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 20N101W TO 18N116W. ...THE ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG A LINE FROM 07N78W TO 14N102W TO 09N121W TO 12N129W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS E OF 80W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 20N... TWO WEAK SURFACE LOWS ARE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE WESTERN LOW IS THE 1011 MB REMNANT LOW OF MARTY CENTERED NEAR 23N125W MOVING W 11 KT. THE OTHER LOW IS A SMALLER CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT 200 NM W OF THE SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 22N114W MOVING NW AT 5 KT. NEITHER LOW HAS ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. THE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0128 UTC SHOWS THE EASTERN LOW IS MAINTAINING A CLOSED LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...BUT MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW 20 KT. THE REMNANTS OF MARTY ARE MORE ROBUST...WITH THE 0308 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS STILL SHOWING 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WITHIN 150 NM NW QUADRANT. HOWEVER...THE REMNANTS OF MARTY SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROUGH BY TUE MORNING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND SEAS SUBSIDING AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY MORE HOSTILE CONDITIONS. THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF 20 KT WINDS ARE OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WHERE 0600 UTC SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM WDC3786 AND WFLG IN THE VICINITY OF 30N133W SHOWED WINDS AT 20 KT AND SEAS OVER 9 FT. QUIKSCAT CONFIRMS THESE GRADIENT WINDS CAN BE FOUND AS FAR S AS 27N IN FORECAST WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY N OF HAWAII. NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER NW WATERS...HELPING ELEVATE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS HERE TODAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE N OF FORECAST WATERS WED. ONE OTHER NOTE...WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA MAY BRIEFLY REACH 20 KT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT. THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AND THE NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A WEAKER WIND EVENT THE PAST FEW RUNS. S OF 20N... DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 07N74W AND A LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR 00N100W IS PROVIDING LIFT TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE ITCZ OVER FAR EASTERN WATERS. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY NOTED N OF THE ITCZ INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN ALSO BE FOUND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST FROM 03N TO 06N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 93W AND 100W INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS CONVECTION IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS STEMMING FROM THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE EQUATOR REACHING NE THROUGH EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N101W. SLY SWELL...WITH PERIODS IN THE 16-18 SECOND RANGE...CAN BE FOUND ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO COASTS E OF 100W. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ELSEWHERE ASIDE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SYSTEMS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS FOUND ALONG 128W CAUSING A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE ITCZ BUT LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. $$ SCHAUER CLARK