000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202134
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN SEP 20 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 100W FROM 08N TO THE MEXICAN 
COAST. THE WAVE IS MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 
98W AND 104W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS LOCATED FROM 07N78W TO 11N99W TO 11N110W TO 
10N120W TO 12N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 104W AND 
110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 60 NM N OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 131W AND 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 105W...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA N OF 28N W OF 125W. A SHARP MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS 
IS LOCATED FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SW TO NEAR 
25N130W. FLOW ALOFT IS STRONGEST S OF THE TROUGH AXIS E OF 120W 
WITH SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS UP TO 30 KT. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE 
AREA N OF ABOUT 18N. MODERATE EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS 
LOCATED OVER THE TROPICS S OF ABOUT 12N. AT THE SURFACE THE 
REMNANT LOW OF MARTY IS LOCATED NEAR 23N123W WITH A PRESSURE OF 
1010 MB AND MOVING W 10 KT. WINDS ARE 20 KT WITHIN 150 NM OVER 
THE N SEMICIRCLE AND SEAS 8 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE 
IN 48 HOURS. ALSO AT THE SURFACE A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 
21N113W AND MOVING W 5 TO 10 KT. WINDS ARE 20 KT WITHIN 9O NM 
OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE AND SEAS 8 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO 
DISSIPATE IN 18 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 16N127W 
TO 09N128W.

E OF 105W...
A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED 
OVER MEXICO IN THE VICINITY OF 23N101W AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE 
SLOWLY NE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. RIDGE AXES EXTEND ENE INTO THE 
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND WSW ACROSS 20N105W. MODERATE 
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 90W AND 105W 
BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY E OF 90W. 

$$
CAB