000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201517
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN SEP 20 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 98W FROM 07N TO THE MEXICAN 
COAST. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS 
FROM 11N TO 15N.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS LOCATED FROM 08N78W TO 11N100W TO 13N125W TO 
11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 
08N TO 15N BETWEEN 104W TO 112W...WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 128W AND 131W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N AND 60 NM S OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 137W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 105W...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA N OF 28N W OF 128W. A SHARP MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS 
IS LOCATED FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SW TO NEAR 
25N130W. FLOW ALOFT IS STRONGEST S OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH 
SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS UP TO 30 KT. WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA N 
OF ABOUT 20N. MODERATE EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS LOCATED 
OVER THE TROPICS S OF ABOUT 15N. AT THE SURFACE THE REMNANT LOW 
OF MARTY IS LOCATED NEAR 23N122W WITH A PRESSURE OF 1010 MB AND  
MOVING WNW 10 KT. WINDS ARE 20 KT WITHIN 180 NM OVER THE N 
SEMICIRCLE AND SEAS 8 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 48 
HOURS. ALSO AT THE SURFACE A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 22N113W 
AND MOVING NW AT 10 KT. WINDS ARE 20 KT WITHIN 9O NM OVER THE NE 
SEMICIRCLE AND SEAS 8 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 24 
HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 16.5N125W TO 10N128W.

E OF 105W...
A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED 
OVER MEXICO IN THE VICINITY OF 22N101W AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE 
SLOWLY NE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. RIDGE AXES EXTEND ENE INTO THE 
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND WSW ACROSS 20N105W. MODERATE 
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 90W AND 105W 
BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY E OF 90W. 

$$
CAB