000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130319 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN SEP 13 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0130 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 109/100WW FROM 5N-17N MOVING W. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 89W FROM 5N-19N MOVING W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N77W TO 8N80W TO 12N88W TO 13N91W TO 13N108W TO 10N112W TO 9N122W TO 6N129W TO 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM N AND 240 S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 76W AND 89W. 101W-105W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60 NM N AND 360 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 110W. THIS CONVECTION COULD BE ATTRIBUTED TO A LARGE MONSOONAL LIKE CIRCULATION OCCURRING BETWEEN 92W AND 112W...AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 21N115W MOVING SLOWLY SE HAS AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 18N128W TO A SMALL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 13N135W AND TO W OF THE AREA AT 13N140W. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO 19N105W TO ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 16N96W. THE ANALYZED SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE INTO THE AREA THROUGH 28N140W SE TO NEAR 25N124W. THE REMNANT LOW OF LINDA CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED AS A VERY PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 21N133W WITH A PRES OF 1011 MB. IT IS VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND CONSISTS OF BROKEN TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. 20-25 KT WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THIS LOW AND ARE PRODUCING SEAS OF 8-11 FT...PRIMARILY IN NWLY SWELL. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING RAPIDLY E HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR NW SECTION OF THE REGION...AND EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 23N150W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A 180 NM WIDE MOISTURE PLUME WITH THE TROUGH...AND STRETCHING ENE OVER THE CREST OF THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 21N115W WITH A TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE U.S. WEST COAST AND FAR NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS JUST NW OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY NWP MODELS TO REACH THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON WHILE THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES A LINE FROM 32N127W TO 27N140W SUN...AND DISSIPATE BY MON MORNING. LONG PERIOD NWLY SWELLS FROM THIS FRONT HAVE ALREADY PROPAGATED INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND HAVE MOVED INTO THE VICINITY OF THE REMNANTS OF LINDA. THIS PULSE OF NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE SE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUN ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO MAX OUT UP TO 10 OF 11 FT PER LATEST WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE. THESE SWELLS WILL THEN SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT...PRESENTLY WELL NW OF THE AREA...IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE PRECEDED BY INCREASING SLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. LATEST WAVEWATCH MODEL INDICATIONS ARE THAT LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS WITH THIS SECONDARY FRONT SHOULD STAY N OF THE AREA AS THE MAIN ENERGY SOURCE PASSES THE REGION. RECENT SCATTEROMETER AND RADIOMETER PASSES CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE SWATH OF SELY WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH ISOLATED SPOTS TO 30 KT OVER THE SE PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 20S AND BETWEEN 90W AND 140W...AND EXTENDING S OF 10S TO THE SW COAST OF PERU. THIS CONTINUES TO GENERATE A BROAD SPECTRUM OF SE WAVE ENERGY PROPAGATING NW ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND ACROSS THE EQUATOR INTO THE TROPICAL EPAC W OF 90W. THIS IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN THIS SE SWELL MIXED WITH LONGER PERIOD SSW SRN HEMISPHERE SWELL...FROM 10N S TO BEYOND 20S...WITH 11-12 FT SEAS ACROSS THE SRN WATERS S OF 10S. THIS PATTERN AND SEA CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE WAVE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM S TO N ACROSS THE SRN WATERS...BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE N OF THE EQUATOR. THIS LARGE SWATH OF SELY WINDS IS ALSO CROSSING THE EQUATOR AND FLOWING INTO THE S SIDE OF THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... YIELDING A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF 20-25 KT S TO SW WINDS BETWEEN 95W AND 120W...AND AIDING IN STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP CONVECTION BETWEEN ROUGHLY 95W AND 110W. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN KEYING IN ON THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THIS REGION AS THIS CROSS HEMISPHERIC FLOW LIFTS THE E END OF MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ NWD TO NEAR THE MEXICAN COASTLINE BETWEEN 48-72 HOURS. $$ STRIPLING