000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120300 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT SEP 12 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION LINDA WAS CENTERED NEAR 20.9N 131.7W AT 12/0300 UTC MOVING NW OR 300 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. LATEST BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LINDA HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A VERY PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL SWIRL...OR A REMNANT LOW...VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS RIPPED THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PORTIONS OF LINDA AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST HAS LINDA BECOMING A REMNANT LOW DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/ WTPZ25 KNHC...AND PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER TCPEP5/ WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N TO 17N ALONG 102/103W MOVING DUE WEST. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 04.5N TO 19.5N ALONG 82/83W MOVING DUE WEST. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED ALONG 12N TO 13N101W TO 12N108W TO 07N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 360 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 104W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 104W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N126W HAS AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SW THROUGH 23N137W THEN CONTINUES W ALONG 23N TO ANOTHER LOW N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. WITHIN 10 DEGREES TO THE SE OF THIS AXIS AND N OF 15N...MODERATE TO STRONG S TO SWLY WINDS CONTINUED TO SHEAR LINDA...WITH MOST OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE BEEN SHEARED OFF TO THE NE. MID TO UPPER CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS SE SIDE OF THE TROUGH WAS RESULTING IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE S THROUGH SW OF LINDA. A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS NEAR 22N115W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO LINDA. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS E-SE FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST TO THE FAR WESTERN SECTION OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 32N139W TO 26N123W. A NEGATIVELY TILED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA...SE ALONG THE TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER AND TO NE COASTAL MEXICO...AND IS COMBINING WITH THE ABOVE RIDGE TO PRODUCE DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF SRN MEXICO...AIDING IN DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MEXICO S OF 22N. ANOTHER UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AND INTO THE EPAC NEAR 13N90W. DIFFLUENCE AND CYCLONIC TURNING WITH THIS FEATURE ARE AIDING IN DEEP CONVECTION...WITH SOME ISOLATED POTENTIALLY SEVERE...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA E OF 93W AND ACROSS THE FAR W CARIBBEAN. DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW TO THE W OF THIS EPAC LOW IS ALSO MAINTAINING CONVECTION S OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM LINDA AND RIDGING TO ITS NW. THIS IS MAINTAINING THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH LINDA OF 20-35 KT IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS LINDA WEAKENS FURTHER. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH NW OF THE REGION MOVING RAPIDLY SE TOWARDS THE FAR NW CORNER IS CONSISTENTLY BEING FORECAST BY NWP MODELS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND BRINGING LARGE LONG PERIOD NWLY SWELLS MAXING UP TO 10 OF 11 FT PER LATEST WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE. THESE SWELLS SHOULD OVERSPREAD ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WEAKENS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN SECTION. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS OF 20 KT AND SWELLS GENERATED BY A BROAD FIELD OF SE WINDS 20-30 KT S OF THE EQUATOR WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION S OF 7N BETWEEN 85W-114W AND TO S OF 8N BETWEEN 97W-118W WITHIN 48 HOURS. $$ STRIPLING