000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102124 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU SEP 10 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AT 10/2100 UTC...HURRICANE LINDA IS NEAR 19.4N 130.1W MOVING N NW 0R 340 DEG AT 8 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM OF CENTER. ALTHOUGH LINDA STRENGTHENED SOME THE PAST FEW HOURS...SHE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER WESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SEAS SURFACE WATERS ALONG HER TRACK AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON FRI AND FURTHER WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION THIS WEEKEND. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER TCPEP5/ WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 05N ALONG 96W AND HAS MOVED W AT ABOUT 17 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS MOVING UNDER THE E PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH THE ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE AXIS FROM 06N TO 11N. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 08N77W TO 08N92W TO 09N114W TO 13N126W TO 10N137W TO 11N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 07N87W TO 13N99W. AS MENTIONED WITH TROPICAL WAVE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 96N AND 100W. ALTHOUGH BROKEN LOW TO LOCALLY OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM 03N TO 12N W OF 100W... ONLY A COUPLE OF TSTMS ARE NOTED IN THE AREA...CURRENTLY NEAR 06N121W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NEAR 32N127W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG 29N130W THROUGH ANOTHER CYCLONE AT 21N135W WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING S TO A BASE AT 12N134W. THE UPPER AIR IS DRY WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF THIS TROUGH AXIS TO THE S OF 27N. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS AT 21N116W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W OVER HURRICANE LINDA...AND A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E TO A SHARP CREST OVER CENTRAL OLD MEXICO AT 22N100W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM FORMER ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 120W AND 130W IS ADVECTED N MERGING WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE LINDA...WITH THE RESULTANT PLUME NOW REACHING THE BAJA PENINSULA WHERE MOST IT EVAPORATES. ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED S OF THE UPPER RIDGE... FROM 04N TO 15N BETWEEN 102W AND 120W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC ALONG 12N84W TO 07N87W. UPPER DRY AIR IS NOTED BOTH SIDES OF THE THIS TROUGH BETWEEN 84W AND 91W AND SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF THIS TROUGH ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ...WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED NE ACROSS THE SW AND S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HURRICANE LINDA IS MOVING INTO A SURFACE RIDGE RESULTING IN WEAK NW TO SE RIDGING BOTH SW AND THE NE OF THE HURRICANE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LINDA AND THE SW RIDGE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF NE WINDS 20 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL. LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS OF ABOUT 16 SECONDS WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE AREA BUILDING SEAS TO 11 FT BY SAT MORNING. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS OF 20 KT AND SWELLS GENERATED BY A BROAD FIELD OF SE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT S OF THE EQUATOR WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION MAINLY S OF 05N AND E OF 100W. $$ NELSON