000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072115
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON SEP 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL 
STORM LINDA CENTERED NEAR 15.5N 127.0W AT 07/2100 UTC MOVING W 
OR 280 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 60 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LINDA IS FORECAST TO 
BECOME A HURRICANE TUESDAY. NUMEROUS MODERATE WITH SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT TO 110 
NM IN THE NORTH QUADRANT. THE CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN 
THE CONVECTION. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS OBSERVED IN THE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SOME RESTRICTED OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST 
QUADRANT.

...THE ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE 05N77W TO 
07N100W TO 06N115W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 50 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS EAST OF 95W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYER RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA WEST OF 
A LINE THROUGH 32N125W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 135W. THIS AREA IS DRY 
AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS FROM 20N TO 28N AND SCATTERED 
STRATOCUMULUS ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 15N.

EAST OF THE ABOVE RIDGE IS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WITH AN AXIS FROM 
SE ARIZONA ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 16N130W TO 
THE ITCZ NEAR 130W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED WEST OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS SOUTH AND EAST  
OF THE ABOVE TROUGH AND EAST OF 110W. THIS AREA INCLUDES THE 
OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM LINDA. MOST OF THIS AREA IS 
DIFFLUENT ALOFT WITH AREAS OF CLOUDS AND BESIDES THE TROPICAL 
CYCLONE A SMALL CONVECTIVE AREA FROM 17.5N TO 19N BETWEEN 120W 
TO 124W.

ANOTHER TROUGH IS OVER MEXICO EXTENDING FROM FAR WESTERN TEXAS 
TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 110W. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FURTHER SOUTH 
TO NEAR 11N. EAST OF THIS TROUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PREVAILS 
WITH THE DIFFLUENT ANTICYCLONE FLOW.

THIRD UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS EAST OF THE ABOVE TROUGH AND IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 95W-105W AND ALSO 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF DISCUSSION 
AREA MAINLY N OF 20N W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. 
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS IN THE AREA FROM 16N TO 25N W OF 132W OF 
20 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT WILL INCREASE IN AREA COVERAGE AS THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE RIDGE 
TIGHTENS.

THE LOW CLOUD SWIRLS ONE OF WHICH WAS THE REMNANT OF KEVIN HAVE 
MOVED WEST OF THE AREA OR HAVE BECOME DIFFUSE.

SWELLS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE 
PACIFIC AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LATE IN THE WEEK LONG PERIOD 
SWELLS OF 11 FEET WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA.

$$
LL