000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071524
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON SEP 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E CENTERED NEAR 15.4N 126.3W AT 
07/1500 UTC MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER 
TODAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM NAME IS LINDA. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER 
EXCEPT TO 75 NM IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE CENTER IS NOW 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTION. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS 
OBSERVED IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

...THE ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE 05N77W TO 
08N110W TO 10N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ALONG THE 
ITCZ.  

...DISCUSSION...

A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS JUST W OF THE FORECAST REGION 
NEAR 21N143W EXTENDING A RIDGE OVER THE W PORTION OF THE AREA 
MAINLY N OF 10N W OF 130W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR 
AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH THIS FEATURE. A SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM SE ARIZONA ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 22N127W. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN THE TROUGH. ANOTHER  
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE 
TROPICAL CYCLONE. T.D. FIFTEEN-E IS MOVING AROUND THE 
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE WWD TO 
NEAR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. FINALLY...A THIRD UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS 
OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND 
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 93W-102W. 
A TROUGH IS OVER MEXICO EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO 
THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 110W. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FURTHER SOUTH TO 
NEAR 11N. EAST OF THE TROUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PREVAILS WITH 
THE DIFFLUENT ANTICYCLONE MENTIONED ABOVE.

A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF DISCUSSION 
AREA MAINLY N OF 20N W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. 
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS IN THE AREA FROM 16N TO 25N W OF 132W OF 
20 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT WILL INCREASE IN AREA COVERAGE AS THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE RIDGE 
TIGHTENS.

LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF KEVIN...1012 MB NEAR 16N136.5W IS 
A SWIRL IN THE LOW CLOUDS AND IS MOVING WEST 12 KT. ANOTHER 
SWIRL IN THE LOW CLOUDS IS NEAR 15N140W AND IS ALSO MOVING WEST 
12 KT. BOTH SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS 
FRICTION OVERTAKES INERTIAL EFFECTS.

SWELLS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE 
PACIFIC AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK LONG PERIOD 
SWELLS WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA.

$$
LL