000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070907
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON SEP 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E CENTERED NEAR 15.5N 125.6W AT 
07/0900 UTC MOVING W-NW OR 280 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER 
TODAY...AND WILL BE NAMED LINDA. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 70 NM OF CENTER WITH A 
WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND AND 
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE CENTER. 

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 08N78W TO 09N92W TO 08N110W TO 13N121W 
THEN CONTINUES FROM 10N132W TO 09N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION ALONG THE AXIS.  

...DISCUSSION...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS JUST W OF THE FORECAST REGION 
NEAR 21N143W EXTENDING A RIDGE OVER THE W PORTION OF THE AREA 
MAINLY N OF 10N W OF 130W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR 
AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH THIS FEATURE. A SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM SE ARIZONA ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 22N127W. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN THE TROUGH. ANOTHER  
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 16N115W. 
T.D. FIFTEEN-E IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS 
SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE WWD TO NEAR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. 
FINALLY...A THIRD UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO ALONG 
THE COAST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION N 
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 94W-102W. 

A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF DISCUSSION 
AREA MAINLY N OF 20N W OF 115W WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN THE 
TRADE WINDS...PARTICULARLY FROM 15N TO 22N AND W OF 132W. THESE 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREA COVERAGE AS PRES GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE RIDGE TIGHTENS.

THE REMNANTS OF KEVIN...ANALYZED AS A TROUGH ALONG 138W FROM 14N 
TO 18W...CONTINUE AS A LOW-LEVEL SWIRL IN THE STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUDS AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. 

LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO INVADE THE N 
WATERS TODAY RAISING SEAS TO 9 FT LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TUE. 

$$
GR