000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070307
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON SEP 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 15N125W MOVING WNW 
AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS OCCURRING FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 122W-127W. THIS SYSTEM 
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. COMPUTER 
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED 
WITH THIS LOW...PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO 
THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE N. FOR NOW 
EXPECT WINDS OF 20-30 KT AND SEAS IN THE 8 TO 12 FT RANGE.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 08N78W TO 07N100W TO 12N120W TO 10N130W 
TO 09N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS JUST W OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 20N143W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA 
N OF 10N W OF 130W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERS THE AREA W OF 130W. A SHARP MID 
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE ARIZONA ACROSS NORTHERN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 22N127W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER 
NORTHERN MEXICO...OTHERWISE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN THE
TROUGH.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 16N115W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR 15N125W. A COL SEPARATES THE 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 94W-103W. 

A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA
MAINLY N OF 20N W OF 115W. BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF 
20N W OF 125W.

THE REMNANTS OF JIMENA HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED.

THE REMNANTS OF KEVIN ALSO CONTINUE AS A LOW-LEVEL SWIRL IN THE 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS NEAR 16N133W AND IS ALSO FORECAST TO 
DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. 

LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO INVADE THE N 
WATERS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS RAISING SEAS TO 9 FT LATE MON INTO 
EARLY TUE. 

$$
DGS