000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052116
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT SEP 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 14N119W MOVING 
W-NW 10 KT. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED NORTHWEST OF THE 
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM 
OF THE POINT 15N121W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE FEW DAYS. CURRENTLY... 
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

...THE ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...08N78W TO 
08N105W TO 11N115W TO 11N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 25N137W WITH A RIDGE  
EXTENDING MAINLY E TO W ALONG 20N...DOMINATES THE AREA WEST OF 
110W PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. E OF THE RIDGE 
THERE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 105W WITH THE 
TROUGH EXTENDING TO 100W. THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH REACHES 17N. 
ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO FROM 100W TO 
93W. A NARROW TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 93W TO 89W WITH ANOTHER RIDGE 
EAST OF 89W.

THE REMNANTS OF JIMENA...ANALYZED AS A TROUGH AT 05/0600 
UTC...ARE PRODUCING SOME CLOUDINESS OVER SOUTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. WHILE DEEP CONVECTION ENDED SEVERAL HOURS AGO...LOW 
TOPPED SHOWERS ARE STILL OCCURRING. ACCORDING TO THE COMPUTER 
MODELS...A TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELD IS EXPECTED 
TO PERSIST OVER THIS REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. 

THE REMNANT LOW FROM KEVIN IS STILL EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR 16.5N128W. A TROUGH IS ANALYZED 
ALONG 126W/127W FROM 18N TO 14N AT 05/1800 UTC AND IS MOVING 
WEST 10 KT. ASCAT PASS SHOWS NE WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN 180 NM NW 
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THIS LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 
18 HOURS.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS MAINLY N OF 
20N WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN THE TRADEWINDS IN THE WESTERNMOST 
PORTION OF OUR DOMAIN PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 15N AND 22N AND W OF 
135W. NE WINDS OF 20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED. 

A WEAK PAPAGAYO WIND EVENT WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS 
REACHING 20 KT MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. 

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO INVADE THE N WATERS IN 
ABOUT 48 HOURS.

$$
LL