000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050908
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT SEP 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 08N78W TO 07N100W TO 12N113W THEN FROM 
10N120W TO 08N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 100 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 84W 
AND 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS SEEN WITHIN 80-100 EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 96W...AND BETWEEN 110W AND 112W. 

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 20N130W...WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING MAINLY E TO W ALONG 20N...DOMINATES THE NW 
PORTION OF THE AREA PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. E 
OF THE RIDGE...THERE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 
118W. THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH REACHES 19N. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE 
IS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO.
 
THE REMNANTS OF JIMENA...ANALYZED AS A TROUGH AT 05/0600 
UTC...ARE PRODUCING SOME CLOUDINESS OVER SOUTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. WHILE DEEP CONVECTION ENDED SEVERAL HOURS AGO...LOW 
TOPPED SHOWERS ARE STILL OCCURRING. ACCORDING TO THE COMPUTER 
MODELS...A TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELD IS EXPECTED 
TO PERSIST OVER THIS REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. 

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 13N116W...MOVING 
W-NW ABOUT 10 KT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVERNIGHT AND 
REMAINS DISPLACED WELL NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL 
WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM 
DURING THE FEW DAYS. CURRENTLY...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THIS 
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

THE REMNANT LOW FROM KEVIN IS STILL EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY 
WHERE A WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS NOTED. THE LOW... 
ANALYZED 1011 MB AT 05/0600 UTC IS NEAR 18N125W. A RECENT ASCAT 
PASS SHOWS NE WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN 180 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE 
LOW. THIS LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO ESTABLISH OVER THE NORTHERN 
FORECAST WATERS MAINLY N OF 20N WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN THE 
TRADEWINDS IN THE WESTERNMOST PORTION OF OUR DOMAIN PARTICULARLY 
BETWEEN 15N AND 22N AND W OF 135W. NE WINDS OF 20 KT AND SEAS TO 
8 FT ARE EXPECTED. 

A WEAK PAPAGAYO WIND EVENT WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS 
REACHING 20 KT MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. 

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO INVADE THE N WATERS IN 
ABOUT 48 HOURS.

$$
GR