000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050226
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT SEP 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0300 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 09N100W TO 12N113W...THE ITCZ 
CONTINUES AGAIN FROM 10N120W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS E OF 88W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANTS OF JIMENA ARE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA 
NEAR 27N112W AS A WEAK 1007 MB LOW.  WHILE DEEP CONVECTION ENDED 
SEVERAL HOURS AGO...SIGNIFICANT LOW TOPPED SHOWERS ARE STILL 
OCCURRING...ESPECIALLY WHERE ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE FLOW.  
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS UP TO 8 FT MAY STILL BE OBSERVED IN THE 
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  THE REMNANTS FROM JIMENA SHOULD 
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 13N115W...MOVING 
WNW ABOUT 12 KT.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SOME WITH THIS 
SYSTEM DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT IS DISPLACED WELL 
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS 
ALOFT MAY SLOW ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS.  THERE IS A LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...CHANCE OF 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE REMNANT LOW FROM KEVIN IS STILL FOUND NEAR 18N125W... 
DRIFTING SLOWLY SW.  NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
SYSTEM...THOUGH A WELL DEFINED VORTEX REMAINS VISIBLE IN THE 
LOWER CLOUDS.  THIS LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.

A MODEST INCREASE IN THE TRADEWINDS IN THE WESTERNMOST PORTION 
OF OUR DOMAIN BETWEEN 15N AND 23N IS EXPECTED IN ABOUT 48 
HOURS...LEADING TO SOME 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT.

A WEAK PAPAGAYO WIND EVENT WEST OF NICARAGUA HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN 
IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST.  WHILE THIS MAY BRIEFLY REACH INTO 
THE 20 KT WIND RANGE THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT TWO MORNINGS...THE 
WINDS IN GENERAL SHOULD BE EASTERLY 10 TO 15 KT.

NO SIGNIFICANT SWELL IS PROPAGATING INTO OUR REGION AT THIS TIME 
OR IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
CWL