000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041513
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI SEP 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA AT 04/1500 UTC IS
NEAR 27.7N 111.8W...OR ABOUT 40 MILES/65 KM TO THE NORTHEAST
OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO. JIMENA IS DRIFTING WESTWARD 2 KT.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. PLEASE READ 
THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/ 
WTPZ23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC
FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE FORECAST IS FOR JIMENA TO BECOME
A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE LATER TODAY. JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
IN PARTS OF WESTERN MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM-TOTAL
AMOUNTS REACHING 30 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

...THE ITCZ...
08N80W 09N119W 9N100W 12N111W 10N118W 10N128W 11N138W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN
78W AND 81W...AND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W. SOME
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING
THE LAST 6 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM TO THE SOUTH OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 103W AND 109W.

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N114W IN THE ITCZ. 
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 109W AND 118W...AND FROM
07N TO 10N BETWEEN 115W AND 118W. THE CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS LOW.

A SURFACE TROUGH BREAKS UP THE ITCZ...ALONG 15N138W 12N140W 
8N141W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OCCURRING FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 88W AND 90W...AND FROM
11N TO 16N BETWEEN 92W AND 101W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS NEAR
AN AREA OF ELONGATED EAST-TO-WEST UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
10N TO 13N BETWEEN 88W AND 98W...A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE NORTH THAT COVERS MOST OF MEXICO...
AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW NEAR 10N TO THE WEST OF 100W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS TO RIDING ALONG JUST TO THE 
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS FLOW IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STILL IS EVEN MORE TO THE WEST AND 
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TO 22N120W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ON TOP OF THE AREA
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA. 

THE REMNANT 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF KEVIN IS NEAR 
19N123W. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS MARKED BY A SWIRL
OF LOW CLOUDS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN
24 HOURS BUT A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
MT