000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040332
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI SEP 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JIMENA AT 04/0300 UTC WAS NEAR 
27.5N 111.7W...OR ABOUT 40 MILES/65 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF SANTA 
ROSALIA MEXICO. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS 
TO 45 KT. JIMENA IS DRIFTING TO THE E-SE OR 120 DEG AT 1 KT. THE 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1004 MB. THE FORECAST 
TRACK OF JIMENA CARRIES THE SYSTEM BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH FURTHER WEAKENING 
ANTICIPATED. JIMENA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER 
BY LATE FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 
70 MILES/110 KM FROM THE CENTER. JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 
ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS SECTIONS 
OF WESTERN MEXICO...AND 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE 
BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN UNOFFICIAL REPORT 
FROM SAN CARLOS MEXICO...LOCATED IN SONORA STATE JUST WEST OF 
GUAYMAS...INDICATES THAT ABOUT 25 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN. 
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD 
SLIDES. HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY 
SUBSIDE ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA 
AND NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. REFER TO 
THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3 
WTPZ23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC FOR 
MORE INFORMATION.

...THE ITCZ...
07N77W TO 06N95W TO 12N110W 10N120W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90-120 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 85W TO 
THE COAST OF PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 102W AND 107W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 
137W. 

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N112W IN THE ITCZ. 
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 16N 
BETWEEN 113W AND 117W AROUND THE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A 
SURFACE TROUGH BREAKS UP THE ITCZ ALONG 13N136W 10N139W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
WITHIN 90-120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CUTS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA THANKS TO A TROUGH THAT STILL IS MOSTLY TO THE 
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 14N130W 
20N125W BEYOND 32N122W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP 
OF MAINLAND MEXICO...AND REACHING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF 
OF MEXICO. 

THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF KEVIN WAS NEAR 20N121W... 
MARKED BY A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 19N 
TO 22N BETWEEN 119W AND 123W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE 
WITHIN 24 HOURS. 

A MIXTURE OF SOUTH...SOUTHWEST...AND NORTHWESTERLY LONG PERIOD 
SWELL DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WATERS...NOT COUNTING THE STRONG 
WAVE ENERGY GENERATED BY JIMENA.

$$
COBB