000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032144
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU SEP 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JIMENA AT 03/2100 UTC WAS NEAR 
27.8N 112.2W...OR ABOUT 35 MILES/55 KM TO THE NORTH OF SANTA 
ROSALIA MEXICO. JIMENA WAS STATIONARY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS 
ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC AND THE 
PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE 
TRACK FORECAST FOR JIMENA CARRIES JIMENA NEAR OR OVER THE 
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAKENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO 
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME A REMNANT
LOW PRESSURE CENTER BY FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND 
OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES/140 KM FROM THE CENTER. JIMENA IS 
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES ACROSS SECTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO...AND 1 TO 2 INCHES 
IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR 
SO. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM-TOTAL AMOUNTS REACHING 30 INCHES ARE 
POSSIBLE. AN UNOFFICIAL REPORT FROM SAN CARLOS MEXICO...LOCATED 
IN SONORA STATE JUST WEST OF GUAYMAS...INDICATES THAT ABOUT
25 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE 
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. HIGHER THAN NORMAL 
TIDE LEVELS WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ALONG PARTS 
OF THE COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN 
MAINLAND MEXICO WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER 
INTERIOR MEXICO FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 109W AND 111W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF
A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT HAS BEEN IN THE ITCZ NEAR 
12N112W. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS PART OF AN ELONGATED 
MONSOONAL CIRCULATION OCCURRING BETWEEN 104W AND 115W. IT IS
LIKELY THAT THIS WAVE HAS BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THIS ELONGATED 
AND MOIST CIRCULATION. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 113W AND 114W...AND FROM 14N TO 16N 
BETWEEN 111W AND 114W AROUND THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

...THE ITCZ...

07N77W 06N95W 12N110W 10N120W 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM TO 120 NM
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN THE COAST OF PANAMA AND 85W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 105W. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 
12N112W IN THE ITCZ. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 113W AND 114W AROUND THE 1009 MB LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N 
TO 16N BETWEEN 111W AND 113W. A SURFACE TROUGH BREAKS UP THE 
ITCZ ALONG 13N135W 10N137W 6N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 13N137W 9N138W 7N140W 6N143W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CUTS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA THANKS TO A TROUGH THAT STILL IS MOSTLY TO THE 
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 14N130W 
20N125W BEYOND 32N122W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP 
OF MAINLAND MEXICO...AND REACHING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF 
OF MEXICO. 

THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF KEVIN WAS NEAR 20N121W... 
MARKED BY A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 19N 
TO 22N BETWEEN 119W AND 123W. THE CURRENT 24-HOUR FORECAST IS 
FOR THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO REMAIN STATIONARY.

A MIXTURE OF SOUTH...SOUTHWEST...AND NORTHWESTERLY LONG PERIOD 
SWELL DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WATERS...NOT COUNTING THE STRONG 
WAVE ENERGY GENERATED BY JIMENA.

$$
MT