000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031559 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU SEP 03 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JIMENA AT 03/1500 UTC WAS NEAR 27.9N 112.6W...OR ABOUT 45 MILES/75 KM TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO. JIMENA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH- NORTHWEST 4 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE TRACK FORECAST FOR JIMENA CARRIES JIMENA NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR EARLY TOMORROW. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES/165 KM FROM THE CENTER. JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS SECTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO...AND 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM-TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH JIMENA. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ALONG SECTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER INTERIOR MEXICO FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 109W AND 111W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT HAS BEEN IN THE ITCZ NEAR 12N111W. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS PART OF AN ELONGATED MONSOONAL CIRCULATION OCCURRING BETWEEN 104W AND 115W. IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS WAVE HAS BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THIS ELONGATED AND MOIST CIRCULATION. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 111W AND 113W AROUND THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SMALL CLUSTERS ARE FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 111W AND 113W. ...THE ITCZ... 08N78W 08N100W 12N109W..CONTINUING FROM 14N121W TO 10N135W TO 08N140W. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N111W IN THE ITCZ. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 111W AND 113W AROUND THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SMALL CLUSTERS ARE FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 111W AND 113W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 102W...AND FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 104W AND 110W. A SURFACE TROUGH BREAKS UP THE ITCZ ALONG 13N135W 10N136W 7N137W. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 138W AND 139W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 131W AND 137W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CUTS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA THANKS TO A TROUGH THAT STILL IS MOSTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 14N135W 24N129W BEYOND 33N123W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF MAINLAND MEXICO...AND REACHING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF KEVIN WAS NEAR 20N121W... MARKED BY A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 119W AND 123W. THE CURRENT 24-HOUR FORECAST IS FOR THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO DISSIPATE. A MIXTURE OF SOUTH...SOUTHWEST...AND NORTHWESTERLY LONG PERIOD SWELL DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WATERS...NOT COUNTING THE STRONG WAVE ENERGY GENERATED BY JIMENA. $$ MT