000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031012
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU SEP 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JIMENA AT 03/0900 UTC WAS NEAR 
27.7N 112.4W...OR 30 NM...45 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SANTA 
ROSALIA MEXICO. JIMENA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEG AT 
6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 997 MB. THE 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH...AND 
WERE NEAR 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. REFER TO THE NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC AND THE 
PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPEP3/ WTPZ33 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE 
CENTER OF JIMENA CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE SPINE OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN...WHILE THE MID LEVEL 
CENTER WAS MOVING MORE NORTHEASTWARD...AND CONTRIBUTING TO THE 
WEAKENING PROCESS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP 
TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER. JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 
ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL 
PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO 
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM 
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING 
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES WITH LARGE 
AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL 
FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...PARTICULARLY 
INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BUT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE 
TODAY. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA 
FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 108W AND 113W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ESTIMATED ALONG 104W FROM 07N TO 14N MOVING 
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT...AND WAS ENTERING THE EASTERN PORTION OF 
AN ELONGATED MONSOONAL CIRCULATION OCCURRING BETWEEN 104W AND 
115W. THIS WAVE IS LIKELY TO BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THIS 
ELONGATED AND VERY MOIST CIRCULATION. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 09N TO 16.5N AND 
BETWEEN 102W AND 117W...ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH OF THESE FEATURES. 

...THE ITCZ...

AXIS WAS DETECTED ALONG 07N77W TO 08N95W TO 12N106W 
...CONTINUING FROM 14N114W TO 11N131W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 420 NM N OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 109W AND 117W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 38N133W S TO JUST NW OF 
JIMENA...AND WAS EXERTING DEEP LAYERED SWLY FLOW ACROSS JIMENA 
AND AIDING IN THE DECOUPLING OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CENTERS.  
AND UPPER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS DOWNSTREAM...EXTENDING FROM A 
HIGH NEAR 21N104W N INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE U.S.  
AND WAS PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS AND TO THE E OF 
JIMENA...VENTING DEEP CONVECTION AND SPREADING UPPER MOISTURE 
ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE THROUGH EXTENDING 
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY S TO NEAR THE NW YUCATAN 
PENINSULA. DEEP LAYERED EASTERLIES ALOFT WERE MILDLY DIFFLUENT 
IN NATURE AND WERE ACTING TO VENT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOONAL CIRCULATION MENTIONED ABOVE WITH 
THE TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES GENERALLY DOMINATED 
THE TROPICS FROM COLOMBIA TO THE SW END OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS 
NEAR 140W.

THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF KEVIN WAS NEAR 
20N121W...MARKED BY A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. SCATTERED LOW TOP 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE WITHIN 70 NM OF THE 
CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THIS REMNANT LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 
HOURS.

A MIXTURE OF SOUTH...SOUTHWEST...AND NORTHWESTERLY LONG PERIOD 
SWELL DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WATERS...OUTSIDE OF STRONG WAVE 
ENERGY GENERATED BY JIMENA.

$$
STRIPLING