000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030317
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU SEP 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JIMENA AT 03/0300 UTC IS NEAR 27.0N 
112.3W...OR 15 NM...35 KM...SOUTH OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO. 
JIMENA IS MOVING TO THE NORTH OR 360 DEG AT 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 
ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. REFER TO THE NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC AND THE 
PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPEP3/ WTPZ33 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE 
CENTER OF JIMENA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE SPINE OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WEAKENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND 
OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. JIMENA IS 
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES 
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF 
WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE 
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. HIGHER THAN NORMAL 
TIDES WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES WILL PRODUCE 
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA...BUT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON THURSDAY. NUMEROUS 
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 26N TO 28N 
BETWEEN 110W AND 112W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 102W FROM 08N TO 15N MOVING WESTWARD 10 
TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS. 

...THE ITCZ...

07N78W TO 08N95W TO 12N110W...CONTINUING FROM 14N120W TO 
06N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS TO THE EAST OF 90W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 13N103W 14N108W
13N116W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS TO THE WEST OF 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 38N135W TO A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N139W BEYOND 28N142W. UPPER 
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 400 NM TO THE EAST OF 
THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON TOP OF JIMENA AND 
ACROSS MEXICO IS PUSHING MULTILAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE 
SOUTHWESTERN U.S.A. BETWEEN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA...AND 
INTO ALL OF MEXICO AND THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. DRY 
AIR/SUBSIDENCE STILL EXISTS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NORTH OF 30N 
FROM THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA.

THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF KEVIN WAS NEAR 
19N121W...MARKED BY A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. SCATTERED LOW TOP 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE WITHIN 70 NM OF THE 
CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THIS REMNANT LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY AND PERHAPS DRIFT 
WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N108W IN THE ITCZ...
SURROUNDED BY ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

$$
COBB