000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021547 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED SEP 02 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE AT 02/1500 UTC IS NEAR 25.2N 112.2W OR ABOUT 30 MILES/45 KM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO...AND ABOUT 255 MILES/410 KM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO. JIMENA IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPEP3/ WTPZ33 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE FORECAST TRACK FOR JIMENA PUTS ITS CORE NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. THE CENTER OF JIMENA HAS MOVED NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR CABO SAN LAZARO DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES/55 KM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES/220 KM. JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 110W AND 112W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 98W/99W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ ARE FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W. ...THE ITCZ... 07N78W 10N96W 11N105W 13N125W 07N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 210 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS TO THE EAST OF 96W...WITHIN 180 NM TO 270 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 101W AND 116W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N120W 10N130W 06N140W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 36N136W BEYOND 28N143W... STILL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 400 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON TOP OF JIMENA AND ACROSS MEXICO IS PUSHING MULTILAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.A. BETWEEN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA...AND INTO ALL OF MEXICO AND THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE STILL EXISTS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NORTH OF 30N FROM THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF KEVIN WAS NEAR 19N121W... MARKED BY A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 60 NM TO 70 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THIS REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY AND PERHAPS DRIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N107W IN THE ITCZ... SURROUNDED BY ITCZ PRECIPITATION. $$ MT