000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021012 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED SEP 02 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... JIMENA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...QUICKLY NEARING THE SW COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AT 0900 UTC SEP 02...HURRICANE JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 111.9W OR ABOUT 65 NM...110 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO...MOVING NNW OR 340 DEG AT 11 KT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...JIMENA WILL BRUSH ALONG THE COAST OR MOVE OVER CABO SAN LAZARO NEAR MIDDAY...THEN CONTINUE NORTH NORTHWESTWARD AND BE NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM NE AND 75 NM SW SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED IN BANDS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER PARTICULARLY ON THE EAST SIDE. REFER TO THE NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND MAY INUNDATE LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS ACROSS S PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 88W/89W N OF 6N BASED UPON CONTINUITY. HOWEVER...LONG TERM SATELLITE AND TPW LOOPS SUGGEST THAT THIS WAVE MAY BE FARTHER WEST ALONG 98W...AND ENTERING THE EASTERN END OF AN ELONGATED MONSOONAL CIRCULATION. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 06N75W TO 09N97W TO TO 15N114W TO 14N122W TO 07N137W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 270 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 94W AND 1134W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 22N103W. POWERFUL HURRICANE JIMENA CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM TOWARDS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM JIMENA IS BEING ADVECTED NORTH AND EASTWARD UNDER THIS RIDGE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS ARE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS WHERE A MAINLY WLY FLOW PREVAILS. MID TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST REGION AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 07N98W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 98W. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE NW PORTION AT THE SURFACE. A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF JIMENA MAY AFFECT THE SW PORTION OF U.S. DURING THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN. THE REMNANT LOW OF KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR 18N122W AND MEANDERING. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED SOME DEEP CONVECTION WAS PERSISTING E AND NE OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...HOWEVER THIS CONVECTION WAS WEAKENING OVER THE PAST HOUR. THE REMNANTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY PERHAPS DRIFT WEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GAP WINDS...EXPECT ELY WINDS TO PULSE AT 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THEN DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 90W DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALSO...NELY WINDS NEAR 20 KT WERE SUGGESTED OVERNIGHT JUST DOWNSTREAM AND TO THE SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BEHIND A SUSPECTED TROPICAL WAVE. WINDS THERE ARE FORECAST TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY AND BLOW NEAR 20 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. $$ STRIPLING