000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020320
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED SEP 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

JIMENA CONTINUED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN BUT STILL REMAINS A BORDERLINE
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. AT 0300 UTC SEP 02...HURRICANE JIMENA IS LOCATED 
NEAR 23.2N 111.3W OR ABOUT 80 NM...145 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF 
CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MOVING NNW OR 345 DEG AT 11 KT. ON THE 
FORECAST TRACK...JIMENA WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN 
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY MORNING...
AND BE NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
IS 960 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 100 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 120 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 
NM E AND 45 NM W SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED IN BANDS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER 
PARTICULARLY ON THE EAST SIDE. REFER TO THE NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN 
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE 
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS 
OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH 
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG WITH LARGE 
AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL 
FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W N OF 6N WITH NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION AT THE MOMENT. ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
TSTMS ARE NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS IN HONDURAS. 

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 08N78W TO 
10N88W TO 09N100W TO TO 12N122W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 94W AND 
112W.  

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 
22N103W. POWERFUL HURRICANE JIMENA CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND THE 
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM TOWARDS SOUTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM JIMENA 
IS BEING ADVECTED NORTH AND EASTWARD UNDER THIS RIDGE ACROSS 
NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COUPLE OF WEAK 
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS ARE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS 
WHERE A MAINLY WLY FLOW PREVAILS. MID TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE 
HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST 
REGION AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 07N98W 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 
90W AND 98W.   

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE NW PORTION AT THE SURFACE. A 
SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF 
JIMENA MAY AFFECT THE SW PORTION OF U.S. DURING THE UPCOMING 
LABOR DAY WEEKEND INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN.
 
THE REMNANT LOW OF KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR 18N122W. INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED SOME DEEP CONVECTION WAS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...HOWEVER THIS CONVECTION 
WAS WEAKENING OVER THE PAST HOUR. THE REMNANTS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN STATIONARY PERHAPS DRIFT WEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

GAP WINDS...EXPECT ELY WINDS TO PULSE AT 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THEN DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 90W DURING THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS.

$$
COBB