000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012136 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE SEP 01 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... JIMENA HAS WEAKENED TO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AT 2100 UTC SEP 01...MAJOR HURRICANE JIMENA IS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 111.2W OR ABOUT 95 NM... 175 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MOVING N-NW OR 330 DEG AT 10 KT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...JIMENA WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND BE NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM E AND 50 NM W SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED IN BANDS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 230 NM OF CENTER PARTICULARLY ON THE EAST SIDE. REFER TO THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE LAST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON KEVIN AT 2100 UTC SEP 01. AT THIS TIME...TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN IS CENTERED NEAR 18.4N 122.0W MOVING SLOWLY N OR 360 DEG AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. KEVIN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW PRES AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. REFER TO THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W N OF 6N WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THE MOMENT. ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 08N78W TO 09N100W TO 09N110W THEN CONTINUES FROM 12N124W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 100W AND 113W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 23N101W. POWERFUL HURRICANE JIMENA CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM TOWARDS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM JIMENA IS ADVECTED NE UNDER THIS RIDGE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS ARE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS WHERE A MAINLY WLY FLOW PREVAILS. MID TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST REGION AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF AREA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 09N96W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 98W. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE NW PORTION AT THE SURFACE. A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF JIMENA MAY AFFECT THE SW PORTION OF U.S. DURING THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN. GAP WINDS...EXPECT ELY WINDS TO PULSE AT 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THEN DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 90W DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. $$ GR