000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011546
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE SEP 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 1500 UTC SEP 01...DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE JIMENA IS LOCATED 
NEAR 21.0N 110.7W OR ABOUT MOVING N-NW OR 330 DEG AT 10 KT. ON 
THE FORECAST TRACK...JIMENA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN 
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND 
TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY 
THURSDAY. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS INCREASED TO 945 MB. 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT 
INDICATE THAT JIMENA HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS ARE NOW 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM IN ALL QUADRANTS. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED IN BANDS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 
300 NM OF CENTER. REFER TO THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL 
INFORMATION.

AT 1500 UTC SEP 01...TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN IS CENTERED NEAR 
18.0N 121.7W MOVING SLOWLY N OR 360 DEG AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 
30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. CONVECTION WITH KEVIN HAS BEEN WANING 
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH ONLY TWO SMALL BANDS REMAINING. 
KEVIN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW PRES AREA WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REFER TO THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/ WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL 
INFORMATION.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 84W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION AT THE MOMENT. 

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 08N85W TO 
11N103W TO 10N108W THEN CONTINUES FROM 14N124W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N 
TO 11N BETWEEN 100W AND 114W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NEAR 12N91W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 
23N110W. POWERFUL HURRICANE JIMENA CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND THE 
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM TOWARDS SOUTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM JIMENA 
IS ADVECTED NE UNDER THIS RIDGE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO INTO 
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS ARE 
NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS WHERE A MAINLY WLY FLOW 
PREVAILS. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND THE 
IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS DOMINATES MOST OF THE AREA W OF 120W AND N 
OF 20N. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 08N94W GENERATING A 
FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.  

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE NW PORTION AT THE SURFACE. A 
SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF 
JIMENA MAY AFFECT THE SW PORTION OF U.S. DURING THE UPCOMING 
LABOR DAY WEEKEND RAISING THE CHANCE OF RAIN.
 
GAP WINDS...EXPECT ELY WINDS TO PULSE AT 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THEN DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 90W DURING THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS.

LONG PERIOD S TO SE SWELL GENERATED FROM HURRICANE JIMENA HAS 
ALREADY BEGUN TO AFFECT THE W COAST OF MEXICO...BAJA 
CALIFORNIA...AND IS PROPAGATING INTO THE S PORTIONS OF THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA ALREADY. THESE SWELLS WILL INCREASE N OF 18N THE 
REST OF TODAY...AND GENERATE LARGE AND POWERFUL SURF...AND VERY 
STRONG RIP CURRENTS. 

$$
GR/SS