000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011006
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE SEP 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 0300 UTC SEP 01...DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE JIMENA WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 110.1W 931 MB AT 0900 UTC SEP 01 MOVING NNW 
OR 330 DEG AT 10 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 
931 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
165 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM IN ALL 
QUADRANTS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED IN 
BANDS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 330 NM OF CENTER. JIMENA AS REACHED THE 
EDGE OF EASTERN PACIFIC WARM POOL AND WILL BE MOVING OVER 
SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS IT MOVES 
N-NW TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA. REFER TO THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL 
INFORMATION.

AT 0900 UTC SEP 01...TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN WAS CENTERED NEAR 
18.0N 121.6W MOVING N OR 10 DEG AT 4 KT. MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS 
ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED 
NEAR 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTIONS WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM NE OF CENTER AND 90 NM SW OF 
CENTER. KEVIN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW PRES AREA 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REFER TO THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/ WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL 
INFORMATION.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 80W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER LONG TERM SATELLITE ANIMATIONS 
SUGGEST THIS WAVE MAY BE FARTHER W ALONG 88/89W. 

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS ALONG 09N80W TO 
07N88W TO 14N102W THEN CONTINUED FROM 12N122W TO 05N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIONS WAS FROM 04N 
TO 10N BETWEEN 85W AND 108W AND FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 105W AND 
111W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED OVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 22N 
WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL 
PORTION. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM JIMENA IS 
ADVECTED NE UNDER THIS RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO AND 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THEN TURNING NE ACROSS 
FLORIDA. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY W OF 125W AND N OF 20N E OF 
125W. 

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE NW PORTION AT THE SURFACE.
 
GAP WINDS...EXPECT ELY WINDS TO PULSE AT 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THEN DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 90W DURING THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS.

LONG PERIOD S TO SE SWELL GENERATED FROM HURRICANE JIMENA HAS 
ALREADY BEGUN TO AFFECT THE W COAST OF MEXICO...BAJA 
CALIFORNIA...AND IS PROPAGATING INTO THE S PORTIONS OF THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA ALREADY. THESE SWELLS WILL INCREASE N OF 18N 
TODAY...AND GENERATE LARGE AND POWERFUL SURF...AND VERY STRONG 
RIP CURRENTS. 

PULSES OF NW AND SRN HEMI S AND SW WILL MIX ACROSS THE REGIONAL 
WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A STRONG PULSE OF S SWELL 
TO AFFECT COASTAL S AMERICA AND MOVE INTO THE GALAPAGOS THU AND 
FRI.

$$
STRIPLING