000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010312
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE SEP 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 0300 UTC SEP 01...DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE JIMENA IS LOCATED 
NEAR 19.4N 109.6W OR ABOUT 245 NM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO 
MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 8 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED AT 931 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 
60 NM OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 NM OVER THE S 
SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IN BANDS IS 
NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 330 NM OF CENTER. REFER TO NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

AT 0300 UTC SEP 01...TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN WAS CENTERED NEAR 
17.6N 121.6W MOVING N OR 10 DEG AT 4 KT. MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 40 KT. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM W OF CENTER. KEVIN IS EXPECTED 
TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW PRES ON TUE. REFER TO NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/ WTPZ24 KNHC FOR 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED W TO ALONG 80W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION AT THE MOMENT. 

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 09N80W TO 
07N88W TO 14N102W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 12N122W TO 05N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N 
TO 10N BETWEEN 85W AND 108W AND ALSO FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 
105W AND 111W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED OVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 22N 
WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL 
PORTION. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM JIMENA IS 
ADVECTED NE UNDER THIS RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO AND 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THEN TURNING NE ACROSS 
FLORIDA. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY W OF 125W AND N OF 20N E OF 
125W. 

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE NW PORTION AT THE SURFACE.
 
GAP WINDS...EXPECT ELY WINDS TO PULSE AT 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THEN DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 90W  DURING THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
NELSON