000 AXPZ20 KNHC 312144 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON AUG 31 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AT 2100 UTC AUG 31...MAYOR HURRICANE JIMENA IS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 109.2W OR ABOUT 265 NM...495 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 9 KT. A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 931 MB WAS MEASURED BY DROPSONDE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 KT...AT THE VERY HIGH END OF CATEGORY 4 STATUS...WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IN BANDS IS ALSO SEEN ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM OF CENTER. SOME OF THE OUTER BANDS OF JIMENA ARE AFFECTING THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN COLIMA AND NAYARIT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE HURRICANE NEAR OR OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. BASED ON THIS FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND A HURRICANE WATCH FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA. JIMENA IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. INTERESTS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE ADVISED THAT STRONG WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS...SO PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE. REFER TO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. KEVIN WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIS MORNING AND WILL DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. AT 2100 UTC AUG 31...IT IS CENTERED NEAR 17.2N 121.4W MOVING N-NE OR 20 DEG AT 5 KT. MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE HAS INCREASED TO 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. THE CYCLONE IS GENERATING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...WITH ONLY A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 70 NM TO THE WEST OF CENTER. REFER TO NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/ WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. ...TROPICAL WAVES... THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY N OF 05N ALONG 101W IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS IT APPEARS THAT IS WAS ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF JIMENA THAT IS ALMOST A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 08N82W TO 07N90W TO 13N102W THEN CONTINUES FROM 12N124W TO 07N140W. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180-220 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 101W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 21N102W EXTENDING A RIDGE SWD TO NEAR 12N102W. JIMENA IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM JIMENA IS ADVECTING NE UNDER THIS RIDGE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE GULF...WITH A NARROW PLUME OF THIS MOISTURE CONNECTING TO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS. A COUPLE OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS ARE OVER THE NORTH WATERS WHERE A NW TO W FLOW PREVAILS. UPPER NLY WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE FAR EASTERN EPAC WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO NEAR 08N92W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH...REMNANTS OF IGNACIO... EXTENDS FROM 26N132W TO 20N130W. SOME CYCLONIC ROTATION IS STILL NOTED IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD FIELD. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. GAP WINDS...EXPECT ELY WINDS NEAR 20 KT TO PULSE UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THEN DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 90W DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. $$ GR