000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311543
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON AUG 31 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 1500 UTC AUG 31...MAYOR HURRICANE JIMENA IS LOCATED NEAR 
18.0N 108.3W OR ABOUT 260 MILES S-SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO 
AND ABOUT 425 MILES S SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MOVING NW OR 
315 DEG AT 7 KT. MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE IS 940 MB WITH A SMALL 
5 NM DIAMETER EYE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 155 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IN BANDS IS ALSO SEEN ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM OF 
CENTER. SOME OF THE OUTER BANDS OF JIMENA ARE ALREADY AFFECTING 
THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN COLIMA AND NAYARIT. THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE HURRICANE NEAR OR OVER THE BAJA 
PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. BASED ON THIS FORECAST...THE 
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR A 
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND A 
HURRICANE WATCH FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA.
REFER TO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

AT 1500 UTC AUG 31...KEVIN IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION AND WILL DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 
HOURS. IT IS CENTERED NEAR 16.7N 121.7W MOVING N OR 10 DEG AT 5 
KT. MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE HAS INCREASED TO 1007 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. THE CYCLONE IS  
GENERATING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...WITH 
A COUPLE OF SMALL CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION TO THE SE AND 
NW QUADRANTS. REFER TO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP4/ WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF 05N ALONG 101W...MOVING W AT 15 
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE INTERSECTION 
OF THE WAVE AXIS AND THE ITCZ COVERING THE AREA FROM 06N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 97W AND 102W. 

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 08N78W TO 
08N90W TO 10N98W THEN CONTINUES FROM 12N123W TO 08N130W TO 
07N140W. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL 
WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 40 NM OF 08N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 
KEVIN NEAR 13N120W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH 
AN UPPER-ANTICYCLONE NEAR 11N122W IS SUPPORTING THIS CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 21N102W 
EXTENDING A RIDGE SWD TO NEAR 12N102W. JIMENA IS MOVING AROUND 
THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS 
MOISTURE FROM JIMENA IS ADVECTING NE UNDER THIS RIDGE ACROSS 
NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE GULF...WITH A NARROW PLUME OF THIS 
MOISTURE CONNECTING TO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS. SOME 
OF JIMENA DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADS S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 90W 
AND 115W. A THIRD...BUT SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS AT 33N116W. 
A COUPLE OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS ARE OVER THE NORTH WATERS WHERE 
A NW TO W FLOW PREVAILS. UPPER NLY WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE FAR 
EASTERN EPAC WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS IN THE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 08N90W.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANTS OF IGNACIO HAVE WEAKENED 
INTO A TROUGH NEAR 25N132W. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE NW PORTION OF 
THE FORECAST AREA.    

GAP WINDS...EXPECT ELY WINDS NEAR 20 KT TO PULSE UP AND DOWN 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THEN DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 90W   
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
GR