000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311010
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON AUG 31 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 0900 UTC AUG 31...HURRICANE JIMENA WA LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 
107.9W OR ABOUT 260 MILES S-SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND 
ABOUT 425 MILES S SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MOVING NW OR 305 
DEG AT 6 KT. MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE WAS 940 MB WITH A SMALL 5 
NM DIAMETER EYE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED NEAR  
125 KT GUSTING TO 155 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IN BANDS WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM OF 
CENTER. THE EYE OF JIMENA HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT 
OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAINS ENCIRCLED BY A CORE OF STRONG 
CONVECTION. REFER TO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

AT 0900 UTC AUG 31...TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 
121.7W MOVING N OR 5 DEG AT 7 KT. MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE WAS 
1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KT 
GUSTING TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE NW QUADRANT. CONVECTION PERSISTS 
NEAR THE CENTER OF KEVIN...BUT HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING IN 
AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...AND SUGGESTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM. 
REFER TO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP4/ WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED N OF 05N ALONG 100W...MOVING W AT 
15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION WAS FLARING E OF 
THE AXIS WITH CYCLONIC ROTATION CENTERED NEAR 09N98W. 

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDED FROM 08N78W TO 
06.5N85W TO 11N98W THEN INTO FAR S PERIPHERY OF JIMENA NEAR 
11.5N107W...THEN CONTINUED FROM 13N120W TO 08N133W TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING 
ALONG AND WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM S OF JIMENA TO 80W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 20N135W WITH A FLATTENING 
RIDGE EXTENDING N TO A CREST AT 27N134W. A SECOND UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE WAS OVER HURRICANE JIMENA AND HAS A RIDGE SW TO NEAR 
09N120W...AND A RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO A CREST OVER THE CENTRAL 
GULF OF MEXICO. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM 
JIMENA IS ADVECTING NE UNDER THIS RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL OLD 
MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A NARROW PLUME OF 
THIS MOISTURE CONNECTING TO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS. 
SOME OF JIMENAS DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADS S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 
90W AND 115W. A THIRD...BUT SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS AT 
33N116W. 

A COUPLE OF UPPER TROUGHS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE 
FIRST IS ALONG 32N124W TO 23N124W AND THE SECOND TUTT AXIS 
EXTENDS ALONG 32N100W TO A SMALL MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE JUST 
N OF THE HURRICANE AT 26N110W. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY N OF 18N 
W OF 125W AND N OF 20N BETWEEN 125W AND 112W.

AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TRAILS AN UPPER TROUGH S 
TO BASE NEAR 06N90W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM COLOMBIA 
OVER THE EXTREME SE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ASSOCIATED 
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE DEEP TROPICS E OF 
85W WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 
90W.  

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANTS OF IGNACIO HAVE WEAKENED 
INTO A TROUGH NEAR 23N130W.

GAP WINDS...EXPECT ELY WINDS NEAR 20 KT TO PULSE UP AND DOWN 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THEN DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 90W OF 
THE  FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
STRIPLING