000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310317
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON AUG 31 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 0300 UTC AUG 31...HURRICANE JIMENA IS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 
107.2W OR ABOUT 255 MILES S SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND 
ABOUT 445 MILES S SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MOVING NW OR 305 
DEG AT 6 KT. MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE IS 940 MB WITH A 7 TO 10 
NM DIAMETER EYE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 125 KT GUSTING TO 
155 KT. CURRENTLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 
NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IN BANDS 
IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM OF CENTER. REFER TO NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

AT 0300 UTC AUG 31...TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 
121.7W MOVING N OR 5 DEG AT 7 KT. MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE IS 
1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT GUSTING TO 45 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 
NM OVER THE NW QUADRANT. REFER TO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/ WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL 
INFORMATION.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 05N ALONG 97W AND IS MOVING W AT 12 KT. 
ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING ALONG THE 
AXIS WITH CYCLONIC ROTATION CENTERED ON 09N98W. 

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 05N77W TO 
12N98W TO 10N107W TO 14N115W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 12N122W TO 
07N134W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
04N83W TO 06N90W TO 07N140W TO 15N113W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND 
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF A 
LINE FROM 14N121W TO 08N129W AND ALSO FROM O6N TO 11N BETWEEN 
134W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 21N135W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING N TO A CREST AT 32N128W. A SECOND UPPER ANTICYCLONE  
OVER HURRICANE JIMENA HAS A RIDGE SW TO NEAR 09N120W...AND A 
RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO A CREST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. 
MOST OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM JIMENA IS ADVECTED NE UNDER 
THIS RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO CONCENTRATING INTO A NARROW PLUME JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER 
TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS. SOME OF JIMENAS DEBRIS MOISTURE 
SPREADS S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 90W AND 115W. A THIRD...BUT 
SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS AT 33N116W. 

A COUPLE OF UPPER TROUGHS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE 
FIRST IS ALONG 32N125W TO 24N126W AND THE SECOND EXTENDS ALONG 
30N109W TO 26N112W TO A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE JUST N OF THE 
HURRICANE AT 23N114W. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY N OF 18N W OF 
125W AND N OF 20N BETWEEN 125W AND 112W.

AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TRAILS AN UPPER TROUGH S 
TO BASE NEAR 06N90W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM COLOMBIA 
OVER THE EXTREME SE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ASSOCIATED 
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE DEEP TROPICS E OF 
85W WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 
90W.  

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANTS OF IGNACIO HAVE WEAKENED 
INTO A TROUGH NEAR 23N130W.

GAP WINDS...EXPECTING NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT TO PULSE ACROSS 
THE AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FOR THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS.

$$
NELSON