000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302153
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN AUG 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 2100 UTC AUG 30...HURRICANE JIMENA IS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 
106.8W OR ABOUT 270 MILES...440 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO 
CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 480 MILES...770 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG 
AT 7 KT. MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE IS 945 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 120 KT GUSTING TO 145 KT. JIMENA HAS A 
SMALL TIGHTLY WRAPPED EYE AND IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR 
HURRICANE. CURRENTLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 
15N-18N BETWEEN 105W-108W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS 
FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 104W-110W. MEXICAN RADAR FROM CUYUTLAN 
SHOWS CONVECTION JUST REACHING THE S MEXICO COAST BETWEEN 
102W-106W. JIMENA REMAINS IN AN ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC 
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. INTEREST IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR 
THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA. REFER TO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL 
INFORMATION.

AT 2100 UTC AUG 30...TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 
121.9W OR ABOUT 940 MILES...1515 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 5 KT. 
MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED 40 KT GUSTING TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 122W-124W. SOME LIGHT 
SE UPPER WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING KEVIN. ON ITS 
FORECAST PATH...KEVIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO COOLER WATERS 
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. REFER TO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/ WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL 
INFORMATION.

...TROPICAL LOWS...

.A SMALL 1014 MB LOW IS NEAR 16N141W AND MOVING SW AT 10 KT. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. THIS LOW IS 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 98W MOVING W AT 15 KT. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 96W AND 98W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 
94W-100W.   

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 08N77W TO 
09N90W TO 12N97W. THEN CONTINUE FROM 11N108W TO 15N120W TO 
07N130W TO 08N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
04N TO 08N BETWEEN 81W AND 88W...AND FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 
100W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 106W AND 111W.   

...DISCUSSION...

BESIDES AL THE SURFACE FEATURES MENTIONED ABOVE... A 1025 MB 
HIGH IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 36N141W. IN THE TROPICS... 
GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. 

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 
23N137W. A SECOND ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH MEXICO NEAR 
18N99W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 12N108W. BESIDES THE UPPER 
LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE JIMENA A SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
IS BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W-120W. NE UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW IS FURTHER S OVER THE TROPICS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 
10N. SIGNIFICANT UPPER MOISTURE IS OVER THE TROPICS FROM 02N TO 
16N BETWEEN 80W AND 140W...AND OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA E 
110W.  

$$
FORMOSA