000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301605
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN AUG 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 1500 UTC AUG 30...HURRICANE JIMENA IS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 
106.3W OR ABOUT 285 MILES...460 KM...SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES 
MEXICO AND ABOUT 515 MILES ...825 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 8 KT. 
MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE IS 948 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 115 KT GUSTING TO 140 KT. JIMENA HAS A VERY 
SMALL TIGHTLY WRAPPED EYE AND IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR 
HURRICANE. CURRENTLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED IN 
SOLID BANDS WITHIN 120 NM OF ALL QUADRANTS OF THE CENTER WITH 
ADDITIONAL BANDS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH EXTENDING 240 NM FROM 
THE CENTER. PORTIONS OF S MEXICO IS UNDER THE NORTHERN BAND FROM 
103W-106W. JIMENA REMAINS IN AN ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC 
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. INTEREST IN 
WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD 
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA. REFER TO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL 
INFORMATION.

AT 1500 UTC AUG 30...TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 
121.8W OR ABOUT 960 MILES...1540 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN 
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...MOVING NNE OR 15 DEG AT 6 KT. MINIMUM 
SURFACE PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED 45 KT GUSTING TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 121W-124W. SOME LIGHT 
SE UPPER WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING KEVIN. ON ITS 
FORECAST PATH...KEVIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO REACH COOLER 
WATERS IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS. REFER TO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/ WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL 
INFORMATION.

...TROPICAL LOWS...

.A SMALL 1011 MB LOW IS NEAR 16N139W AND MOVING SW AT 10 KT. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. THIS LOW IS 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W MOVING W AT 15 KT. CONVECTION IS 
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 96W-100W.   

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 06N77W TO 
06N90W TO 09N100W. THEN CONTINUE FROM 11N120W TO 07N130W TO 
06N140W. EXCEPT AS NOTED WITH JIMENA SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG FROM 09N TO 13N FROM 104W TO 110W.

...DISCUSSION...

BESIDES AL THE SURFACE FEATURES MENTIONED ABOVE... A 1025 MB 
HIGH IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 37N141W. IN THE TROPICS... 
GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. 

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 
21N136W. A RIDGE EXTENDS NE TO N BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N117W. 
A SECOND ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH MEXICO NEAR 18N97W. 
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 14N115W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
IS IN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS...OFF THE S COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA ALONG 24N112W 17N118W. NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FURTHER 
S OVER THE TROPICS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N. SIGNIFICANT UPPER 
MOISTURE IS OVER THE TROPICS FROM 02N TO 16N BETWEEN 80W AND 
140W...AND OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA E 110W.  

$$
FORMOSA