000 AXPZ20 KNHC 301021 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN AUG 30 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AT 0900 UTC AUG 30...HURRICANE JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 105.7W OR ABOUT 270 NM S OF CABO CORRIENTES AND ABOUT 475 NM S-SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 10 KT. MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE WAS 965 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED NEAR 100 KT GUSTING TO 120 KT. CURRENTLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED IN SOLID BANDS WITHIN 120 NM OF ALL QUADRANTS OF THE CENTER...WITH A SMALL EYE IMPROVING IN APPEARANCE OVERNIGHT. JIMENA REMAINS IN AN ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...AND THE MAIN LIMITATION TO STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME WILL BE THE EXACT TRAJECTORY IT TAKES...AS LAND AND COOLER SUB SURFACE WATERS COULD EVENTUALLY DISTURB THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. AT 0900 UTC AUG 30...TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 121.9W OR ABOUT 860 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 6 KT. MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE WAS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED 45 KT GUSTING TO 55 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING IN BANDS WITHIN 90 NM OVER W SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM SE QUADRANT...AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM NE OF CENTER. SOME LIGHT SE UPPER WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING KEVIN. ON ITS FORECAST PATH...KEVIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO REACH COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO WEAKEN THEN. REFER TO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/ WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. ...TROPICAL LOWS... .A SMALL SURFACE LOW PRES IS NEAR 16N138.5W AND WAS MOVING JUST S OF DUE W AT 10 KT...ESTIMATED AT 1013 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FLARING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW...AS IT MOVED S-SW NEAR 12 KT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE...A PORTION OF THE WAVE THAT DEVELOPED INTO DANNY IN THE ATLANTIC...WAS ANALYZED ALONG 95W...BUT MAY BE BACK TO THE E BY A FEW DEGREES. THIS IS A VERY WEAK WAVE AND HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO TRACK BEYOND CONTINUITY. LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING WAS NOTED ACROSS THE AREA...CENTERED ALONG 88/89W. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS ANALYZED ALONG 07N76W TO 09N95W TO 09N106W TO 13N117W...THEN CONTINUED 10N125W TO 07N140W. EXCEPT AS NOTED ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 102W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 22N139W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 11N W OF 128W...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR. A SECOND UPPER ANTICYLONE OVER HURRICANE JIMENA DOMINATES THE AREA S OF 27N BETWEEN 86W AND 111W. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM JIMENA IS ADVECTED NE ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO...THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THEN CONCENTRATING INTO A PLUME OVER E TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. BETWEEN THESE TWO ANTICYCLONES IS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 32N126W TO A BASE NEAR 25N127W. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NEAR 26N11W WITH A TROUGH SW TO 13N122W IN THE VICINITY OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN. A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 31N118W. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY N OF 19N W OF 109W. AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TRAILS AN UPPER TROUGH S TO BASE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM COLOMBIA OVER THE EXTREME SE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE DEEP TROPICS E OF 85W WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 90W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANTS OF IGNACIO WERE AT 26N130W AND ARE EXPECTED TO MEANDER AND GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. GAP WINDS...ELY WINDS NEAR 20 KT ARE FORECAST TO PULSE ACROSS AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. $$ STRIPLING